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Off the back of an impressive run to the World Cup semi-finals in Russia, England have a wealth of exciting players in their 26-man squad and have the added bonuses of playing the very majority of their games at Wembley Stadium.
Yet The Analyst's Stats Perform Predictor is giving the Three Lions a mere 5.2% chance of winning the European Championships for the first time, on home soil.
The algorithm estimates the probability of match outcomes using betting market odds and team rankings based on historical and recent performances.
The reminder of the tournament has been simulated 40,000 times to give the final prediction. According to the model, eight teams are more likely to win the Euros than England.
2018 World Cup winners France are the favourites with 20.5%, with Belgium (15.7%) & Spain (11.3%) in second and third respectively.
Usual suspects Germany (9.8%), Portugal (9.6%), Italy (7.6%) and the Netherlands (5.6%) make up the top seven but the position of Denmark in eighth and one place ahead of England, will no doubt cause a stir
20.5% - Based on our Stats Perform prediction model, we give France the highest chance of winning #EURO2020 (20.5%), followed by Belgium (15.7%) & Spain (11.3%). Calculation.- OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) June 4, 2021
For more info on how the Stats Perform Predictor is calculated, click here: https://t.co/klelo4Kei4 pic.twitter.com/KRks8osaT5
Here is the final rankings on who is most likely to emerge victorious, as per the model:
24. North Macedonia - 0.02%
23. Slovakia - 0.04%
22. Scotland - 0.1%
21. Hungary - 0.1%
20. Finland - 0.1%
19. Austria - 0.2%
18. Czech Republic - 0.2%
17. Turkey - 0.4%
16. Wales - 0.6%
15. Ukraine - 0.8%
14. Poland - 0.8%
13. Russia - 1.0%
12. Croatia - 1.0%
11. Sweden - 1.5%
10. Switzerland - 2.3%
9. England - 5.2%
8. Denmark - 5.4%
7. Holland - 5.6%
6. Italy - 7.6%
5. Portugal - 9.6%
4. Germany - 9.8%
3. Spain - 11.3%
2. Belgium - 15.7%
1. France - 20.5%
England kick off their campaign against Croatia, the team who knocked them out of the World Cup three years ago, on 12 June.
They then face Scotland and Czech Republic in Group D.