The supercomputer experts at Five Thirty Eight have calculated the probability of the teams that are likeliest to form the lineup in the 2023/24 Premier League season - and it’s led to plenty of reaction from fans.
It’s already been confirmed that Burnley and Sheffield United will be plying their trade in the top-flight of English football next season — but there’s still one coveted promotion place to be claimed.
Of course, Luton Town and Coventry City are the two teams left in the running to claim that last league place.
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But as three go up, a trio of teams must come down and it has already been confirmed that Southampton will be demoted to the Championship next season.
However, Everton, Leeds United and Leicester remain in danger of relegation and are all at risk of dropping down a division.
But according to the latest percentage figures compiled by FiveThirtyEight, there’s a higher probability of Leeds and the Foxes heading to the Championship than the Toffees.
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Taking into account form and recent head-to-head statistics, as well as defensive and attacking data, the AI has calculated that Everton have a 25% chance of being relegated, while Leicester have a likelihood of 82% to go down ahead of their game tonight against Newcastle United.
The Whites are the most likely to drop down to the Championship, with a calculated 94% chance of relegation as they host Tottenham on the final day having to win and hoping results elsewhere go their way.
According to the data, Luton have a 56% chance of swapping places with the above and playing in the Premier League next season.
Coventry are given a probability of 44% by comparison of edging next weekend's Championship play-off final.
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While the results will definitely please fans of the Hatters, not everyone is impressed by the apparent ‘supercomputer’ and its end-of-season predictions.
One fan took to Twitter and wrote: “So what did they predict here that is so amazing? Yeah Leeds and Leicester are going down obviously and Luton Town going up is possible of course.”
Another said: “It’s assumed the league stays the same and the favourite wins the playoffs. Hardly loads of permutations. My phone could do that. You’ve used supercomputer to make your tweet sounds impressive.”
A third said: “So this assumes the league table finishes as it is and Luton win the playoffs. Hardly a super computer.”
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Some Twitter users have been quick to support the probabilities.
An Everton fan replied and wrote: “It’s based on form and the difficulty of the final games as well, we’ve never been bottom but at one point were highest probability to go down, even lower than Southampton. Shows how well Sean Dyche has actually done.”
Another said: “Swap Luton for Coventry then it’s correct.”
While the estimated percentages are just calculations, we’ll know for sure whether it’s the Sky Blues or Luton who are heading into the Premier League later this week.
Featured Image Credit: AlamyTopics: Everton, Premier League, Fan Reactions, Leicester City, Leeds United
