To make sure you never miss out on your favourite NEW stories, we're happy to send you some reminders

Click 'OK' then 'Allow' to enable notifications

Not now
OK
Advert

Analysis Reveals Every Team’s Chance Of Winning Champions League After Last-16 Draw

Published 
| Last updated 

Analysis Reveals Every Team’s Chance Of Winning Champions League After Last-16 Draw

Data analysts FightThirtyEight have updated their ranking of each Champions League team's chances of winning following the last-16 draw.

The stats experts examine attacking and defensive numbers, as well as a multitude of other data, to give each club a percentage chance of victory.

And it's no surprise that Manchester City have increased their chances of success, having drawn Borussia Monchengladbach in the knockout stage. The Bundesliga club are playing at this stage of Europe's top club competition for the first time since 1978.

Advert

Pep Guardiola's side have underachieved in Europe, exiting this competition in the quarter-finals for three successive seasons. But FightThirtyEight have them strengthening their odds of victory with a 26% chance of lifting the trophy for the first time.

Bayern Munich, who face Lazio next, are hot on their heels with a 19% chance of defending their European crown.

However it's bad news for Liverpool and Chelsea. Both have slipped down the rankings slightly and now own just a 6% chance each of winning the Champions League this season.

Advert

Both face tricky last-16 ties despite winning their groups. Jurgen Klopp's Liverpool take on RB Leipzig - semi-finalists last season - while Chelsea face Diego Simeone's Atletico Madrid. Not easy.

The big surprise from the FightThirtyEight data is Barcelona chances of winning actually increasing to 12%.

Admittedly, the troubled Catalan club drawing PSG wasn't a disaster, given Barca finished second in their group and could have faced Bayern, Man City or Liverpool. But Lionel Messi is going to have to produce some serious magic in 2021 to make that 12% chance look realistic.

Advert

Real Madrid apparently have only half as a good a chance of lifting the big-eared trophy (6%), while Juventus, PSG and Borussia Dortmund are all on 4%.

See the full table below - and uncover how the FiveThirtyEight produce their detailed statistical model here.

16. Lazio: under 1%

15. FC Porto: under 1%

Advert

14. Borussia Monchengladbach: under 1%

13. Sevilla: 1%

12. Atalanta: 2%

11. RB Leipzig: 3%

Advert

10. Borussia Dortmund: 4%

9. PSG: 4%

8. Juventus: 4%

7. Atletico Madrid: 5%

6. Chelsea: 6%

5. Liverpool: 6%

4. Real Madrid: 6%

3. Barcelona: 12%

2. Bayern Munich: 19%

1. Manchester City: 26%

All imagery: PA Images/UEFA

Topics: Football News, Football, Champions League draw, Champions League

Alex Reid
More like this
Advert
Advert
Advert

Chosen for YouChosen for You

Football

Premier League Star Looking To Buy Raheem Sterling’s House As Transfer Edges Closer

6 minutes ago

Most Read StoriesMost Read

Football

Cristiano Ronaldo Has Asked To Be Allowed To Leave Manchester United Should They Receive 'Satisfactory Offer'

a day ago