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Analysis Reveals Every Team’s Chance Of Winning Champions League After Last-16 Draw

Analysis Reveals Every Team’s Chance Of Winning Champions League After Last-16 Draw

Data analysts FightThirtyEight have updated their ranking of each Champions League team's chances of winning following the last-16 draw.

The stats experts examine attacking and defensive numbers, as well as a multitude of other data, to give each club a percentage chance of victory.

And it's no surprise that Manchester City have increased their chances of success, having drawn Borussia Monchengladbach in the knockout stage. The Bundesliga club are playing at this stage of Europe's top club competition for the first time since 1978.


Pep Guardiola's side have underachieved in Europe, exiting this competition in the quarter-finals for three successive seasons. But FightThirtyEight have them strengthening their odds of victory with a 26% chance of lifting the trophy for the first time.

Bayern Munich, who face Lazio next, are hot on their heels with a 19% chance of defending their European crown.

However it's bad news for Liverpool and Chelsea. Both have slipped down the rankings slightly and now own just a 6% chance each of winning the Champions League this season.


Both face tricky last-16 ties despite winning their groups. Jurgen Klopp's Liverpool take on RB Leipzig - semi-finalists last season - while Chelsea face Diego Simeone's Atletico Madrid. Not easy.

The big surprise from the FightThirtyEight data is Barcelona chances of winning actually increasing to 12%.

Admittedly, the troubled Catalan club drawing PSG wasn't a disaster, given Barca finished second in their group and could have faced Bayern, Man City or Liverpool. But Lionel Messi is going to have to produce some serious magic in 2021 to make that 12% chance look realistic.


Real Madrid apparently have only half as a good a chance of lifting the big-eared trophy (6%), while Juventus, PSG and Borussia Dortmund are all on 4%.

See the full table below - and uncover how the FiveThirtyEight produce their detailed statistical model here.

16. Lazio: under 1%

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15. FC Porto: under 1%


14. Borussia Monchengladbach: under 1%

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13. Sevilla: 1%

12. Atalanta: 2%

11. RB Leipzig: 3%


10. Borussia Dortmund: 4%

9. PSG: 4%

8. Juventus: 4%

7. Atletico Madrid: 5%

6. Chelsea: 6%

5. Liverpool: 6%

4. Real Madrid: 6%

3. Barcelona: 12%

2. Bayern Munich: 19%

1. Manchester City: 26%

All imagery: PA Images/UEFA

Topics: Football News, Football, Champions League draw, Champions League, UCL

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Alex Reid

Alex Reid is a writer at SPORTbible who’s previously strung words together for FourFourTwo, Boxing News, The Guardian and, yes, Cruise International (it’s about big ships, not Tom). Interests range from football and boxing to real sports like WWE and darts. He is not a cage fighter.