Data Analysts Predict The Winner Of This Season’s Champions League

Data analysts have broken down the attacking and defensive strengths of each of the 16 teams left in this season's Champions League to give us the most likely winner.

The group stages had their drama as European heavyweights such as Manchester United and Inter Milan exited, while 13-time winners Real Madrid only made it through on their final group game.

But the real excitement comes in the knockout stages in 2021 - and the stats experts at FiveThirtyEight.com have crunched the numbers to produce a model which shows each club's chances of winning. The results are a surprise.

While defending champions Bayern Munich are the slight favourites with the bookies to retain their title, FiveThirtyEight have them second with a 17% chance of lifting the trophy.

In first place, with a 24% chance of victory, is Manchester City. So far City have massively underperformed in Europe given their talent and budget, exiting the tournament at the quarter-final stage for the third straight time last season.

However they undoubtedly have quality players and a manager in Pep Guardiola who's won this trophy twice. So we can see some logic there.

Liverpool are given only a 7% chance of winning back the trophy they last lifted in 2019, which is the same number as Frank Lampard's Chelsea and last season's runners-up PSG. Perhaps that's also a shock given LFC's European pedigree.

Most surprisingly of all, Barcelona are given a 10% chance of victory. So Lionel Messi and his teammates are going to need a very happy Christmas to turn their form around and make that one-in-10 chance look realistic.

Real Madrid are given a 6% chance of success, while Juventus are only 10th out of the 16 clubs with 3%. See the full table below - and learn how the FiveThirtyEight produced their detailed statistical model here.

16. Lazio: under 1%

15. FC Porto: under 1%

14. Borussia Monchengladbach: under 1%

13. Sevilla: 1%

12. Atalanta: 1%

11. RB Leipzig: 3%

10. Juventus: 3%

9. Atletico Madrid: 5%

8. Real Madrid: 6%

7. Borussia Dortmund: 6%

6. PSG: 7%

5. Chelsea: 7%

4. Liverpool: 7%

3. Barcelona: 10%

2. Bayern Munich: 17%

1. Manchester City: 24%

All imagery: PA Images/UEFA

Topics: Football News, Football, Champions League

Alex Reid

Alex Reid is a writer at SPORTbible who’s previously strung words together for FourFourTwo, Boxing News, The Guardian and, yes, Cruise International (it’s about big ships, not Tom). Interests range from football and boxing to real sports like WWE and darts. He is not a cage fighter.

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