'I think we're going home' - Here's how Scotland can go through to the World Cup knockouts despite manager's doubts

After suffering a damaging defeat at the hands of Brazil, Scotland boss Steve Clarke took the stance of 'I think we're going home', as the third-place qualification parameters are dangerously close to surpassing the low bar that his side has set.

The expansion to a 48-team tournament has resulted in a shift in how teams can qualify from the World Cup group stage, which used to be as black-and-white as the top two from each group move on.

Now, a Round of 32 fixture has been added to balance the larger number of groups, and the top eight third-place teams will move on.

The decisive factors for the third-place table will be points and goal difference, as the final round of group stage fixtures heightens the stakes for those plucky underdogs.

Scotland went first. Kicking off round three with a heavy defeat to a Neymar-boosted Brazil, the Scots cemented their third-place finish, thanks to their win against Haiti. Three points and a -3 goal difference set the bar low.

The damaging defeat to Brazil drew a bleak reaction from Steve Clarke, who claimed that 'only Scotland' could draw two heavyweights like Brazil and Morocco in their group and resigned to the fact that 'I think we're going home'.

Players like John McGinn remained hopeful, although quick to add that if they get through, Scotland needs to cut out the catastrophic individual errors leading to goals, such as that given to Vinicius Jr in the opening few minutes of the game.

There is a glimmer of hope for Scotland, though.

Here's exactly how things need to pan out for Scotland to go through:

Results needed for Scotland to progress to the World Cup knockouts

At the time of writing, just a few hours after Scotland's loss, three groups have been decided.

Group A has South Korea in third place, but they outqualify Scotland with a superior -1 goal difference. Its a similar story in Group B too, as third-placed Bosnia have four points and are safely through.

That means Scotland has to outqualify four of the remaining nine groups, which looks like a tall order.

For that to happen, at least four of the following results need to come in for Scotland.

• Group D
• Australia vs Paraguay: Australia to win by two or Paraguay to win by four.

A draw in this match will see Paraguay go through on four points.

• Group E
• Ivory Coast vs Curacao: Ivory Coast win or draw.
• Ecuador vs Germany: Germany win or draw

Both of these results need to happen for Scotland to stay above those in the third-place table, as both Ecuador and Curacao would end on two points.

• Group F
• Japan vs Sweden: Japan to win by three or more

Japan and Netherlands are already through on four points, so Japan would need to demolish the Swedish goal difference to fall beneath Scotland.

• Group G
• Egypt vs Iran: Egypt win
• Belgium vs New Zealand: Belgium or New Zealand win

This is one of the most open-ended groups, but for Scotland to finish above this third-place team, they need Iran to stay on two points and either Belgium or New Zealand to stay on their points. A draw would be enough in that game if Iran loses.

• Group H
• Spain vs Uruguay: Spain win
• Cabo Verde vs Saudi Arabia: Cabo Verde win or draw

Similar to Group G, this is a group where Scotland needs both results in their favour. With Uruguay and Cabo Verde on two points and a neutral goal difference, they need any result for both of those teams beats Scotland's tally.

• Group I
• Senegal vs Iraq: Draw or Iraq win by fewer than three

France and Norway are through, and with Senegal on a -3 goal difference, a win would put them on a superior ratio than Scotland.

• Group J
• Argentina vs Jordan: Argentina win or draw
• Austria vs Algeria: Algeria win by three or more, Austria win by one or more

As long as Jordan doesn't pull off a huge shock, this group hangs on the other fixture. A draw puts them both through and a defeat leaves it down to goal difference.

• Group K
• DR Congo vs Uzbekistan: Draw or Uzbekistan win by less than four

DR Congo will be the hot favourites, but any Uzbekistan result would leave Congo on two points and below Scotland.

• Group L
• Ghana vs Croatia: Ghana win by two or more

Any result for Croatia puts them and Ghana through, and the only hope here is that Ghana finds some goals to diminish the Croatia goal difference.

The best chances for Scotland come in Groups D, E, G, H, and J, unless there's some big shock results with rested squads.