Supercomputer predicts Man Utd and Newcastle's chances of qualifying for Champions League round of 16

The Premier League could have just two representatives in the knockout stage of the Champions League, with Manchester United and Newcastle facing potential elimination from the competition.

United and Newcastle are both outside of the top two in their respective groups heading into the final round of fixtures.

United remain bottom of Group A after drawing 3-3 with Galatasaray on Wednesday night.

Erik ten Hag's side let a two-goal lead slip twice in Istanbul and will now need to beat Bayern Munich and hope Galatasaray and Copenhagen draw in order to reach the last 16.

Newcastle are in a slightly better position in Group F, with Eddie Howe's side currently third.

A heart-breaking 1-1 draw with Paris Saint-Germain, in which the French side were awarded a controversial late penalty, means Newcastle must beat Milan in their final group game and hope PSG drop points at Borussia Dortmund to progress.

Euro Club Index has worked out the probability of the final positions in every group, and it's not pretty reading for United and Newcastle.

The Red Devils have been given just an 8 per cent chance of qualifying for the last 16, with Copenhagen (59 per cent) and Galatasaray (33 per cent) deemed much more likely of reaching the knockouts.

Newcastle have been given a 35 per cent chance of booking their place in the last 16, more than AC Milan (11 per cent) but less than PSG (53 per cent).

In Group C, Napoli have been given a 95 per cent chance of making it through, with Braga given just five per cent.

Meanwhile, in Group H, Porto are deemed heavy favourites to reach the next round, with the Portuguese club given a 86 per cent chance compared to Shakhtar Donetsk’s 14 per cent.

4⃣ teams for the #ChampionsLeague last-16 still to be decided

Group A
5⃣9⃣% 🇩🇰København
3⃣3⃣% 🇹🇷Galatasaray
0⃣8⃣% 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿Manchester Utd

Group C
9⃣5⃣% 🇮🇹Napoli
0⃣5⃣% 🇵🇹Braga

Group F
5⃣3⃣% 🇫🇷Paris SG
3⃣5⃣% 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿Newcastle Utd
1⃣1⃣% 🇮🇹AC Milan

Group H
8⃣6⃣% 🇵🇹Porto
1⃣4⃣% 🇺🇦Shakhtar#UCL

— Euro Club Index (@EuroClubIndex) November 30, 2023

Despite that grim reading for United, manager Ten Hag hasn't given up hope of reaching the knockouts.

"We win and lose together," said the Dutchman after the draw with Galatasaray.

"You see the progress in this team. I take many positives from this game. Some mistakes, we played like I want my team to play. It was enjoyable to watch that: proactive, dynamic, brave and we scored great goals.

"Even after we had some setbacks, we kept going until the end and we should have won with big chances from Scott McTominay and Facundo Pellistri.

"Of course, I am disappointed because we should have managed the game better, we will learn from that."