Supercomputer simulates Champions League 1,000 times and the results make for interesting reading

A supercomputer has simulated this season's Champions League 10,000 times to predict which club has the best chance of lifting Europe's most prestigious trophy.

On Thursday, the draw for the 2026-27 Champions League took place in Monaco as reigning champions Paris Saint-Germain prepare to defend their crown after beating Arsenal in last season's final.

Luis Enrique's side will take on Barcelona, Roma, Galatasaray and Slovan Bratislava at home alongside tough away games against Manchester City, Aston Villa, Villarreal and Serie A side Como.

Last season's finalists Arsenal, meanwhile, will come up against Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, Lille and Sabah at home, as well as trips to Bayern Munich, Real Betis, Napoli, Slavia Prague.

So, which club will win this season's competition? This week, a supercomputer has run 1,000 simulations of the newly drawn league stage and every subsequent round to find out.

Estimating match outcomes from team-strength ratings, recent domestic and European performance, and market-based probabilities, the model forecasts PSG to finish top of the 36-team league-phase table.

In fact, the Parisiens have been forecast to record a 2-1 win over Arsenal in the final, a repeated outcome of last season's Champions League final.

PSG beat Arsenal in last season's final. Image credit: Getty

PSG’s projected route to the final includes a quarter-final win over Bayern Munich and a semi-final victory over 15-time winners Real Madrid before the showpiece event at Madrid's Estadio Metropolitano.

Who is projected to impress in the Champions League league phase?

As mentioned above, PSG have been forecast to finish top of the league-phase table with 19 points.

Meanwhile, finalists Arsenal are second with 18 points, with Bayern Munich (17 points), Barcelona (17 points), Real Madrid (17 points), Man City (16 points), Liverpool (16 points) and Inter Milan (15 points) making up the top eight.

Alex Kostin, a spokesperson for British Gambler, the company that ran the model, has explained their findings.

“Paris Saint-Germain’s Champions League draw is not a gentle one, but the supercomputer still has them as the strongest side in the competition," he said.

"They are projected to top the league phase and then come through a brutal knockout route involving Bayern Munich and Real Madrid to reach the final.

“Arsenal are the leading English team in the model. They have been handed some big league-phase assignments, particularly Bayern away and Real Madrid at home, but the simulations give them a strong chance of finishing in the top eight and avoiding the February play-offs.

"The most common final is then a repeat of last season, with PSG again edging Arsenal – this time by a projected 2-1 scoreline."

Manchester United, on the other hand, are predicted to struggle in Europe this season, with the club missing out on a spot in the last-16.

Michael Carrick's side will welcome Bayern Munich to Old Trafford in the league phase. They will also host AS Roma, RB Leipzig and Sabah, who play in the Azerbaijan Premier League under former Who Wants to Be a Millionaire contestant Valdas Dambrauskas.

In terms of away games, Atletico Madrid are United's other opponents from Pot 1, while Sporting, Villarreal and Cesc Fabregas' Como will also welcome the Reds in what is a difficult draw.