Opta supercomputer simulates World Cup 10,000 times and the results make for interesting reading

Opta's supercomputer has simulated the 2026 World Cup 10,000 times to determine which nation is the most likely to win this summer's tournament in the United States, Canada and Mexico.

We are just 10 days away from the opening game of the World Cup, which will see Mexico take on former hosts South Africa at the Estadio Azteca, and we couldn't be more excited.

For the first time, 48 nations will compete for the trophy, meaning a total of 104 matches will take place between June 11 and July 19, including the final at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey.

Argentina head into the tournament as defending champions and are one of six teams that have a strong chance of going all the way, according to Opta's supercomputer.

For those unaware, the Opta supercomputer is a statistical model that estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) by using betting market odds and the Opta Power Rankings.

The odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performances.

So, who comes out on top? Spain are the most likely to lift the 2026 World Cup, winning the tournament in 16.1% of the 10,000 simulations, while France (13.0%), England (11.2%), Argentina (10.4%), Portugal (7%) and Brazil (6.6%) follow behind.

In fact, Spain made the final in 25.6% of the simulations compared to England's 19%.

Who Will Win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Forty-eight teams will battle it out for glory in North America, but who will win the tournament?

We asked the Opta supercomputer for its predictions before the tournament kicks off on 11 June. pic.twitter.com/nPyiTqnKpT

— Opta Analyst (@OptaAnalyst) June 1, 2026

Elsewhere, minnows Curacao were the only team that failed to win the World Cup in any of Opta's simulations, meaning Haiti, Cape Verde, Qatar and Congo DR came out victorious on one or more occasion.

The home nations, meanwhile, are unlikely to push for silverware. Mexico have a 47.8% chance of topping Group A but winning the entire thing is highly doubtful at 0.99%.

The United States have a slightly better chance of going all the way at 1.21% compared to Canada's measly 0.52%.

A psychic who correctly predicted three World Cup winners in a row makes 2026 pick

Michael Bruno, from Brazil, has a track record of predicting World Cup winners.

Ahead of the 2010 tournament in South Africa, he accurately predicted Spain would lift the trophy for the first time. He then forecast Germany's success in his home country in 2014 before calling France's victory over Croatia four years later.

However, at the 2022 tournament in Qatar, he thought France would defend their crown. Of course, Didier Deschamps' side went on to suffer a penalty shootout defeat in the final against Argentina.

Despite this, Bruno has bounced back with another prediction for this summer's tournament.

Speaking to Globo Esporte, he said: “Since 2022, I’ve been announcing the next champion team. Since then, I’ve been stating that Portugal will be the world champion.”

After naming his contenders as France, Spain, England, Argentina, Portugal, and Brazil, Bruno believes Cristiano Ronaldo and Portugal will go on and secure their first-ever World Cup on July 19.

Opta's Supercomputer, meanwhile, gives them a 7% chance. You can see the table in full HERE.