Will England vs Norway kick off on time? Latest probability amid heat and thunderstorm warnings

England and Norway are set to square off in the World Cup quarter final, with the match set to kick-off at 10pm British Standard Time, or 5pm local time; however, there have been serious concerns about there being a delay to when the match begins.

The Three Lions did see their round of 16 clash with Mexico delayed by an hour due to the weather conditions around the Azteca Stadium.

This delay would not have an impact on England’s progression in the World Cup, as they overcame the host nation 3-2 in Mexico City, only the third defeat El Tri have suffered at the famous Azteca Stadium since it opened in 1966.

Ahead of their clash with Norway, there have been concerns that the fixture could be delayed to thunderstorms, but these concerns have eased now following fresh reports closer to kick-off.

England players pose for a team photograph before the FIFA World Cup 2026 Round of 16 match between Mexico and England at Mexico City Stadium

Most weather outlets are predicting the conditions to be extremely warm, as the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) will also sit around 29°C to 32°C, while according to AccuWeather, there is a 43% chance of light rain.

This means the likelihood of the kick-off for the match being delayed is extremely unlikely, with the only reasoning behind this being the extreme heat.

In its guidelines for playing in heat, external players' union FIFPro says a WBGT above 28°C should lead to the "delay or postponement of matches" until conditions are safer.

Yet this is unlikely with the addition of hydration breaks that take place during both halves of all World Cup matches.

This means that the likelihood of the match kicking off at the scheduled time is at around 90%.

The next most likely scenario, as happened with the Mexico game, is that it could be delayed for at least 30 minutes to 75 minutes; meanwhile, the chances that it is delayed between an hour and two hours are currently sitting at 3%, with it being only 1% for a delay of over two hours.

This appears to be the probability due to reports from AccuWeather suggesting that the likelihood of thunderstorms will not be a threat until just after 7pm local time with a 51% chance of rain.

Lightning is seen during a weather delay before clash between Mexico and Ecuador. Image credit: Getty

It means that if the match finishes within the 90 minutes, then there should be no delay in the match; however, if it were to go into extra time and penalties, the chance of delay does increase as it would go beyond 7pm local time, with the chance of a delay at this point increasing to around 25%.

This is due to the protocols FIFA have in place to deal with thunderstorms and lightning strikes when a match is in progress.

A match must be paused if lightning strikes within an eight-mile radius of the stadium. The players and staff have to leave the pitch and head back into the changing rooms, while fans will shelter inside.

Action can only restart after there has been a full 30 minutes of no lightning strikes within the eight-mile radius for the game to restart; however, this will not be immediate, as the players are entitled to 15 minutes of warm-up before the referee gets play back underway.

So, while there is not concern at present with the kick-off time being delayed between England and Norway, there may be a serious possibility it could see action paused in extra time if the forecast is to be believed.