2026 Mexico City GP predictions: Lewis Hamilton win, history to be made and George Russell under pressure

The Formula 1 circus hits the heights of Mexico this weekend, with a fascinating contest set to play out.

The field rarely makes it through the long run down to the first corner unscathed, there's history in the making and fierce battles going on throughout the field.

This track's unusual features mean this could this be an incident-filled weekend - here's what to watch out for.

Kimi Antonelli set to make F1 history

Mercedes’ young charge has been simply sensational this year, showing that it’s not all about the car.

While Antonelli appears to be completely at one with his W17, his teammate George Russell has struggled, at times falling well back into the pack.

Last week at the United States GP was a prime example. While Antonelli was the class of the field on his way to the win, Russell finished a dejected eighth.

There’s something about this generation of cars that the Italian loves, and it’s putting him on the brink of a stunning new F1 record.

If he finishes ninth or better this weekend, he’ll become world champion at the age of 20 years and 68 days, F1’s youngest ever champion by over three years.

The current record-holder is Sebastian Vettel, who clinched the title in 2010 for Red Bull at the age of 23 years, 134 days.

READ NEXT: The 10 youngest F1 world champions in history as Kimi Antonelli closes in on incredible record

Ferrari fiesta and a Lewis Hamilton win? F1 form book could be ripped up by racing at altitude

The Mexico City GP takes place roughly 1.3 miles above sea level, three times the altitude of the next highest at Interlagos, Brazil. This has a serious effect on the cars’ performance.

The thin air density, roughly 20% less than usual, means that cars have much less downforce, lessening the advantage of teams that have a strong aerodynamic package.

It also has an effect on engine performance, with the turbo having to fight harder to feed air into the combustion unit - meaning failures are common.

That could equal good news for Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc's Ferrari, which has been widely acknowledged to have one of the best cars, but a smaller turbo unit which sometimes leaves it lagging behind.

On the long straights of Austin’s COTA circuits last week, the Scuderia found itself almost 7.5mph slower than some of the fastest contenders.

The teams will run their biggest wings as in Monaco, but the aerodynamic grip that provides in Mexico will be the lowest on the calendar.

Cars will also be seen with looser body work and bigger inlets to keep crucial components cool, but have to balance that out against giving the car too much aerodynamic resistance, which would make them slower.

These mind-bending variables for the teams means we could see a massively mixed-up grid on Sunday - another reason to tune in for the action.

There will be loads of new F1 drivers on-track in Mexico

Colton Herta will be on-track for Cadillac, as well as nine other young drivers

Mexico is traditionally a circuit where F1 teams give prospective new talents a chance in the car during Free Practice 1, filling one of their two mandatory sessions throughout the season that they have to hand over to young drivers who have competed in two races or less.

This is due to the fact that the Mexico City GP track - which is a part-street circuit run round a public park, is usually very dusty to begin with, meaning the data teams gain from that session is largely useless.

The upshot is that ten young drivers turn into the world’s fastest roadsweepers in Mexico.

Those taking on broom duties are as follows:

Mercedes: Frederik Vesti replaces George Russell

Red Bull Racing: Ayumu Iwasa replaces Max Verstappen

McLaren: Leonardo Fornaroli replaces Lando Norris

Racing Bulls: Nikola Tsolov replaces Liam Lawson

Alpine: Gabriele Minì replaces Franco Colapinto

Haas: Ryo Hirakawa replaces Esteban Ocon

Audi: Freddie Slater replaces Gabriel Bortoleto

Williams: Luke Browning replaces Alex Albon

Aston Martin: Jak Crawford replaces Lance Stroll

Cadillac: Colton Herta replaces Valtteri Bottas

Ferrari: No 'young driver' - Charles Leclerc / Lewis Hamilton to run as normal

We’ll see strategy chaos in Mexico

Pirelli has brought the C3 (hard), C4 (medium), C5 (hard) for its tyre compound offerings in Mexico.

This is softer than previous years, and this year’s tyres are more susceptible to wearing out (called degradation) too.

Added to the fact since its debut in 2015 there has never been a Mexico City GP without a Safety Car or Virtual Safety Car, and some teams could make some bold strategy decisions as the season comes to its climax.

George Russell could crack further under massive pressure for second in championship race

While teammate Kimi Antonelli has set the standard in 2026, George Russell has been nowhere.

Things hit rock bottom in Austin last weekend as Russell finished a devastating eighth, while seeing the young Italian dominate the race.

"The pace was rubbish,” he said. “That's the long and short of it. I need to try and understand why that is. It's strange when you're so far off.”

He sits second in the championship, but his advantage has dwindled to just one point ahead of Lewis Hamilton, with Max Verstappen five further back, and Charles Leclerc nine points off the Mercedes man.

Any first-corner carnage or race catastrophes could have huge ramifications for the championship.

READ NEXT: 'I've never had an F1 season like this': George Russell explains what’s behind his nightmare 2026