2026 United States GP predictions: First-corner chaos, Antonelli title wait, Verstappen wins

The F1 wagons pull into Austin, Texas this weekend, all set for the world championship’s latest shootout.

History is on the line: Kimi Antonelli could become world champion on Sunday, if his team-mate George Russell doesn’t salvage a half-decent result.

As we’ve seen so many times this year though, that sometimes feel like a big ask for the Brit in 2026…

Kimi Antonelli won’t win the Formula 1 World Championship this weekend - bar a George Russell disaster

The young Mercedes prodigy has a simple target this weekend: if he wants to win the championship, he needs a win.

Added to that, the Italian has to see nearest rival George Russell finish no higher than ninth, and third-placed title contender Lewis Hamilton do no better than fifth.

Antonelli would be making history. At 20 years and 61 days old, he would become the youngest champion in history, beating Sebastian Vettel’s record of 23 years and 134 days.

On balance, it looks likely it won’t happen in Texas. After a blistering start to the season with five wins in the first six races, Antonelli has since largely consolidated his championship lead with solid if not spectacular performances.

His last victory was four races ago in Madrid, and that was essentially gifted to him after a safety car period took the race win from Lando Norris.

However, team-mate Russell has had a calamitous year, suffering the brunt of mechanical issues and not finding the 2026 Mercedes to his liking.

With Antonelli in cruise control, don’t expect to see championship celebrations in Austin - unless Russell has another shocker.

Max Verstappen will lead the charge for victory

A relaxed Max Verstappen is a dangerous proposition.

Now that the Red Bull RB22 is on-song, added to the fact that the Dutchman doesn’t have a world championship to worry about, he can simply go for it every time.

This a terrifying idea for Verstappen’s rivals to contemplate. The four-time world champion usually gives his peers the choice of crash or concede when going wheel-to-wheel, and there’s no reason it will be any different in Texas.

To compound all their worries, Verstappen likes the Circuit of the Americas. He’s won there four times, second only to Hamilton who has six.

As the Red Bull man himself has pointed out before, Austin “is about finding the right compromise in set-up between straight-line speed and downforce for the fast-sweeping corners and the bumps.”

The technical upgrade Red Bull introduced in Azerbaijan brought an increase in downforce and aerodynamic package which is easier for the team to adapt to different circuits, but its improved power unit energy deployment has been a huge contributor to recent success too.

F1’s other gun slingers will have to be on the lookout in Austin.

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United States Grand Prix will be battle of the strategists

The one-stop strategy has been king in recent years in Austin, with drivers often opting to go long on the Medium tyre before finishing on the slower but more durable Hard compound.

Many are minded not to go for softer tyres, considering the high-level of degradation usually seen on the Circuit of the Americas track.

However, in a bid to encourage different approaches, last year the FIA tried to make the difference in the tyre choices more pronounced - it offered the hardest C1 tyre before offering a C3 Medium tyre (two levels softer) and the C4 soft tyre.

The hope was that some teams would roll the dice by running softer, faster but less durable tyres via more pitstops - but few were tempted.

Charles Leclerc started on the Soft tyre and got into second at the start, but ended up becoming a roadblock for Lando Norris running behind as the Monegasque ran out of grip.

For the 2026 US GP, Pirelli has closed the compound gap, bringing the C2 (Hard), C3 (Medium) and C4 (Soft).

It’ll take a brave competitor to go against the one-stop grain, but someone will have to step up and creative if they want to break the strategy deadlock.

The 2026 US GP grid walk will be one to remember

The US GP attracts even more celebrities than usual to an F1 event - sending them into a head-on collision with the man on the microphone, Martin Brundle.

The Sky’s commentator’s (in)famous celebrity-spotting grid walks, door-stepping the rich and famous for their view on F1 proceedings, have seen some peak moments in Austin.

In 2022 Hollywood royalty Brad Pitt, ostensibly on a research trip for the then-unreleased F1 movie, was uninterested in giving much away to Brundle, but then found himself having to backtrack and offer him an interview and place in the film following the social media uproar caused by the snub.

In a slightly less likely encounter, Brundle also did his best to get a freestyle rap out of artist Megan Thee Stallion in 2021. Ironically, it was Brundle who ended up coming out with an iconic line, his “I can do that, because I just did” reaction to being pushed away by a minder becoming an instant classic.

Ignore Brundle at your peril.

Austin's first corner could see carnage

The COTA circuit features a dizzying run up to the first corner, which itself is a tight left-hander.

Collisions are sometimes almost inevitable. At last year’s Sprint race, a late-braking Nico Hülkenberg ran into Lando Norris, who in-turn tagged Oscar Piastri. Both McLarens were out on the spot.

The day after, Kimi Antonelli and Alexander Albon also ran into each other, just the latest chapter of Austin’s demolition derby.

Will we see the race influenced by more carnage this weekend?

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F1 drivers are in for a bumpy ride at Texas

Fittingly for cowboy country, the Circuit of Americas has developed a reputation for being a bit of a wild ride for drivers.

This is due to the circuit being built on a floodplain, meaning the ground beneath the track frequently shifts, creating a bumpy and uneven surface.

For F1 drivers, who essentially sit on the floor of what is already a very stiff car, this is an uncomfortable experience to say the least.

Verstappen has joked that he’ll “probably need to order a new spine” following this weekend.

For this year, Turns 9,10 and 11 have been resurfaced, while bumps have also been smoothed out at Turn 12 and 19. It remains to be seen if the benefit will be felt by those on-track.

It’s not all about comfort either - the team that comes up with the best set-up for riding the bumps without losing too much time, will probably score the best lap time too.