How UEFA work out who the third-placed teams will face in the last 16 at Euro 2024 and how it affects England
Four of the six third-placed teams at Euro 2024 will qualify for the knockout stages - but how does UEFA work out exactly where teams are positioned in the draw?
The introduction of four qualification spots for third-placed teams was introduced in 2016, when UEFA expanded the European Championship from 16 to 24 teams.
Previously, the teams were split into four groups, meaning there was no last 16 stage and teams progressed to the quarter-finals from the group stage instead.
The four third-placed teams are determined by their overall record in the group stages, with goal difference and then goals scored used to separate sides that finish level on points in the event that a tiebreaker is required.
Advert
But from there, UEFA uses a special formula to decide how teams are placed in certain positions when it comes to the last 16 draw at Euro 2024.
Some restrictions are in place - for instance, teams from the same group will not face each other in the last 16.
And each group winner is assigned a limited number of teams from other groups that they can come up against. For instance, the winner of Group C can only face the third-placed team from Groups D, E or F.
There are 15 possible combinations of third-placed teams that can qualify for the knockout stages, in terms of groups, with each of those combinations affecting the draw in different ways.
The UEFA graphic below shows how exactly how the teams are assigned for each of the 15 combinations.
If you've looked at that graphic and are trying to work out how it is looking for England right now if they win the group, you're not alone.
Put simply, the Three Lions know that winning Group C means they will face one of the three third-placed teams from Groups D, E and F.
Prior to tonight's fixtures, that would mean Slovakia or the Netherlands could draw England in the last 16.
Hungary are also provisionally in a qualification spot, but they were in Group A and therefore cannot draw the Three Lions, while Denmark - provisionally in fourth in the six-team table - are, of course, in England's group.
If we take Croatia, from Group B, out of the equation given their outside chance of qualifying, the Three Lions would have a 40 per cent chance of drawing a team from Group F, and another 40 per cent chance of drawing a team from Group E.
Croatia making it through, meanwhile, would significantly increase England's chances of drawing one of the four Group F teams - Portugal, Turkey, Czechia or Georgia.
Should the Three Lions end up in third place via a nightmare scenario, meanwhile, they would take on the winners of Group F or E in the last 16.
Ryan Smart