What Man City’s downfall could look like after 100-point deduction with mass exodus and shock new boss predicted
Man City have been found guilty of all but one of the 115 charges relating to breaches of financial rules brought against them by the Premier League, with several brutal punishments possible, including a huge points deduction. So, how would City cope if they received a 100-point deduction ahead of the 2027/28 campaign?
On Tuesday (September 29), the Premier League confirmed that an independent commission had found City guilty of 114 of the 115 charges the club faced relating to breaches of financial rules between 2008/09 and 2017/18 – a period in which the club won three Premier League titles.
In a lengthy statement, the league confirmed that the club had used “sham contracts” as a way of inflating revenue figures and reducing costs.
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According to the Premier League, City were found to have arranged disguised funding schemes worth more than £830million with commercial partners.
City deny any wrongdoing and say they have a “comprehensive body of irrefutable evidence that exists” to support their position.
The commission also found City guilty of all but one of the charges relating to non-cooperation with the league’s investigation, saying that “a number of important club witnesses gave false evidence in key respects and that some knowingly gave untrue and dishonest evidence”.
The club have until October 2 to appeal the verdict.
What would happen if Man City receive a 100-point deduction?
2027/28 Premier League relegation
SPORTbible has used supercomputer technology to predict exactly what will happen should City be docked 100 points in the 2027/28 campaign.
As you may have predicted, City will be relegated despite earning 78 points on the pitch, giving them a total of –22 and a final league position of 20th.
The 10-time English champions are predicted to reach the FA Cup quarter-finals and Carabao Cup semi-finals, but this will not stop Enzo Maresca from leaving. The financial impact will also be huge, with a predicted loss of £150million in broadcasting, prize and commercial revenue.
Our supercomputer also predicts that Erling Haaland, Gianluigi Donnarumma, Joško Gvardiol, Enzo Fernández, Marc Guéhi, Rúben Dias, Elliot Anderson, Rayan Cherki, Jérémy Doku, Antoine Semenyo, Iliman Ndiaye, Rayan Aït-Nouri and Matheus Nunes will likely depart before the side compete in the Championship.
Academy graduates Phil Foden, Nico O’Reilly and Rico Lewis are predicted to stay loyal, with Vitor Reis, Abdukodir Khusanov, Ayyoub Bouaddi, Allan, Ryan McAidoo and Gerónimo Rulli also tipped to remain at the Etihad.
Those player sales will likely raise between £650million and £800million.
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2028/29 Championship season – promotion
So, with City in the second tier of English football for the 2028/29 campaign, how will they fare?
SPORTbible’s supercomputer gives the north-west club an 84 per cent chance of automatic promotion, with a projected points total of 101.
Foden will become club captain, with Lewis, Reis, Bouaddi, McAidoo and O’Reilly starting the majority of matches, while an array of players with Championship experience will also be added to the squad.
City are predicted to reach the fifth round of the FA Cup and the quarter-finals of the Carabao Cup, while Vincent Kompany will leave Bayern to take charge of his former club.
2029/30 – Premier League return
According to the supercomputer, City will return to the Premier League ahead of the 2029/30 campaign and finish ninth on 55 points after spending £200million on young talent, adopting a similar transfer strategy to Brentford, Bournemouth and Brighton.
They are also tipped to reach the League Cup final but finish as runners-up.
2030/31 – first trophy back
City are predicted to improve significantly in the 2030/31 campaign by finishing sixth, securing at least Europa League qualification and winning the League Cup. The side are also predicted to reach the quarter-finals of the FA Cup.
2031/32 – back in the Champions League
This is the season when City are really expected to kick on, with our predictor tipping Kompany’s side to total 75 points, finish third and finally secure Champions League qualification for the first time since the 100-point deduction.
The side’s impressive performances will ultimately earn Kompany a new deal with City, while they will reach the semi-finals of the FA Cup and Europa League, as well as the fourth round of the League Cup.
Who would Man City sign to rebuild?
City are predicted to poach Hayden Hackney from Everton in the summer of 2027, with the Englishman joining in a deal worth £30million. James Trafford is tipped to return to the club for a third time, while Callum Doyle, also previously of City’s academy, will join from Wrexham in an £18million deal.
Fast forward to summer 2028, and Sunderland’s Chris Rigg, Borussia Dortmund’s Jobe Bellingham, Everton’s Tyler Dibling and Nottingham Forest’s Liam Delap are also predicted to join in deals each worth more than £35million.
In 2029, Guillaume Restes, currently of Toulouse, will replace Trafford as No. 1, while Porto’s Samu Aghehowa will come in as Haaland’s replacement at the Etihad.
Chelsea defender Jorrel Hato and attacker Roony Bardghji will bring City’s total spending in the summer of 2029 to £220million.
In 2030, City are backed to get back on track by signing proven talents Adam Wharton, Kenan Yıldız, Tino Livramento and a back-up goalkeeper at a total cost of £230million before further enhancing their squad with the addition of Paris Saint-Germain midfielder João Neves ahead of the 2031/32 season.
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Topics: Man City
Luke Davies