Why Losing To PSG in Champions League Would Benefit Newcastle

The final matchweek of the Champions League group phase is upon us as a host of clubs, including Newcastle and Paris Saint-Germain, compete to qualify directly for the round of 16.

Newcastle have already secured their place in either the Champions League round of 16 or knockout phase play-offs after picking up wins over Union Saint-Gilloise, Benfica, Athletic Bilbao and PSV Eindhoven.

Eddie Howe's side currently sit seventh in the league phase table, meaning a victory over PSG at the Parc des Princes would confirm their spot in the round of 16.

The top eight overall advance directly to the round of 16, while teams who finish from ninth to 24th will contest the knockout phase play-offs.

It has been a hugely beneficial campaign for Newcastle in their fight against PSR restrictions. So far, they have earned £23.8m in prize money, with a win against PSG potentially adding to that prize pot.

Newcastle players train ahead of their clash against PSG. Image credit: Getty

However, as The Guardian's Barney Ronay pointed out, a loss against PSG would be far from catastrophic.

"How to ruin a format," he said on X. "Would prob be best for Newcastle to lose to PSG tonight and enter the CL playoffs. Two more high revenue games in the current transfer year. Also more likely that way you’ll get 4 games and twice the cash. And in the end that’s all that’s happening here."

If they failed to secure a spot in the top eight, Newcastle would take part in a two-legged knockout phase play-off game, with the first leg taking place on February 17/18, and the second on February 24/25.

The Magpies will stand to earn £9.55m for either finishing in the top eight or winning a play-off round to secure a place in the round of 16. Of course, those previously mentioned two legs will help them earn millions in revenue.

How will the Champions League knockout phase play-off draw work?

As mentioned on UEFA's website, the fixtures for the knockout phase play-offs are determined by means of a draw conducted in accordance with the following principles:

a. The clubs are paired based on their positions at the end of the league phase to form four seeded pairs (clubs in positions 9 and 10, 11 and 12, 13 and 14, and 15 and 16) and four unseeded pairs (positions 17 and 18, 19 and 20, 21 and 22, and 23 and 24).

b. The clubs in each seeded pair are drawn into the knockout phase bracket, against the clubs in each unseeded pair: clubs 9 or 10 against clubs 23 or 24, clubs 11 or 12 against clubs 21 or 22, clubs 13 or 14 against clubs 19 or 20, and clubs 15 or 16 against clubs 17 or 18.

Newcastle are currently 7th in the UCL league phase table. Image credit: Getty

The knockout phase play-off draw will take at 12:00 CET on January 30.