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Every week a big talking point emerges from the Gameweek’s events that shape decisions moving into the next one.
At some point in the action, there will be a player who performs over another one you could’ve picked causing a decision to be made, or an injury that crops up meaning you’re scrambling around for a replacement.
Each week, I’ll take a look at the key talking point in FPL (which may overlap one of the other articles I’ll write, but I’ll give another angle where I can if that happens) and give my thoughts on the situation.
For many, (as I wrote in last week’s article) a big decision on the opening day was whether to start with “Premium” priced Spurs players such as Harry Kane (£11.4m) and Son Heung-Min (£12.0m), or go with more popular picks like Erling Haaland (£11.6m) at Man City or Mohamed Salah (£12.0m) at Liverpool.
The outcomes couldn’t have been more stark: Kane blanked (i.e. scored 2 points without any attacking return) and Son mustered just an assist whereas Salah nabbed a goal and assist and Haaland fired in a brace.
The natural question then became: was it a terrible mistake to start with the Spurs men?
Although I did start with the duo who performed best, I still think the answer I think is no.
It’s very easy to look at outcomes and use them as a proxy for judging decision making in all walks of life. This is also true in Fantasy Football.
The reality is that although hindsight has 20-20 vision, Tottenham were expected to beat Southampton comfortably, and they did. The fact that 4 Spurs goals were scored and only 1 return came from the Premium duo is simply something that can happen in the beautiful randomness that is football.
It was a decent bet to make: if things had turned out differently – Son actually recorded an xGI of 0.9 in the game compounding the misfortune – and they had outscored Haaland and Salah then owners would have had one or two assets with a smaller ownership and a flying start over those who went with the more popular route.
If you were one of the unfortunate ones I’d say this: this is one of those moments, which occur throughout an FPL season, where you’ve got to think to yourself “the decision making process was fine, it was just the outcome that didn’t fall my way”, dust yourself off and move on. Many have already done so, as evidenced by Kane’s price falling as owners flock to Haaland, raising his price in conjunction.
The FPL season is long, and there will be plenty of opportunities to make up points as well as there being many 50/50 style situations that you may or may not find yourself on the right side of.
I’d say just continue to back your instincts, stay calm and don’t panic: one of the Gameweeks ahead will go your way, and you’ll be reaping the reward from backing your judgement.