You may have seen yesterday that we wrote a guide to how the last 16 ties are decided by UEFA, if you haven't you can check it out here. Today we've decided to predict who we expect to meet in the first knockout round..
As Group A has already been decided as a France-Switzerland one-two after their drab 0-0 draw last night, we obviously don't need a prediction for how the games are going to play out. What is interesting though is that Albania, who currently sit on 3 points after beating Romania 1-0 last night, are now the 3rd highest ranked 3rd placed team and stand a real chance of heading into the knockout rounds.
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Wales, on the other hand, hold their qualification in their own hands. If they win and England don't, they qualify top of the group; if they win and England win; they qualify second; if they are beaten they have to hope Slovakia don't pick up points to finish 3rd as a minimum; whilst a draw would knock Russia out and guarantee a 3rd placed finish as a minimum.
We personally fancy England to pick up a victory and Wales to hold out for at least a draw tonight, leaving England to qualify as Group B winners and Wales to qualify as runners-up, knocking Russia out and leaving Slovakia praying results go their way to qualify in third. England to win and Wales/Draw Double Chance is available at 17/10.
On to the ultra-competitive Group C now and with Ukraine already eliminated from the competition, the group is a three-horse race in which any of the teams can finish on top. Current leaders Germany face Northern Ireland in Paris, whilst Poland meet the group's whipping boys in Marseille.
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All three teams head into the final round of fixtures knowing a victory guarantees automatic qualification into the next round, whilst Germany and Poland are safe in the knowledge that picking up a point in their respective games sees them through safely to the next round, leaving Northern Ireland to sweat on the results of other games. If Northern Ireland can somehow mastermind a victory against the World Champions, they will qualify 2nd as a minimum.
As much as we hope the Green and White Army guarantee safe passage into the next round, we can't see past victories for the current top two. You can pick that double up at odds of 5/3.
Having already qualified for the knockout stages, Spain host Croatia in Bordeaux to determine who finishes atop the group. The Spaniards know that avoiding defeat will guarantee the top berth, whilst Croatia are safe in the knowledge that picking up at least a point will be good enough for them to progress without the worry of a possible 3rd placed finish. Croatia, however, can qualify as group winners with a victory so don't expect them to just play out the draw with Spain.
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The game between Turkey and Czech Republic, then, will determine which side finishes 3rd. Both sides know a victory is absolutely necessary to stand a chance of qualification to the knockout round as 2 points will not be enough for the Czech Republic to qualify as one of the four best 3rd placed teams.
Turkey looked to have thrown in the towel against Spain a few days ago after conceding two goals in quick succession in the first half against reigning Champions Spain, but will be much more switched on against the Czechs in the knowledge that they will be on the brink of qualification or elimination. The Czechs themselves are lucky to have a single point to their name after fan trouble in their game against Croatia enforced a game delay and ultimately led to a late, late equaliser (in my opinion).
I'm taking Spain and Croatia to share the spoils and Turkey to turn it on and pick up a victory against the Czech Republic. This double then, is available at odds of 42/5 and could bring home a very nice pay-day.
With Italy having already qualified as group winners following victories over Belgium and Sweden, Italy look set to rest players for their final group game against Ireland. This could stand the Green Army in good stead, as they need a victory at minimum to stand a chance of qualification for the last 16.
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In the other match in Group E, the victor is almost certainly guaranteed qualification. Belgium will definitely qualify 2nd if they avoid defeat, whilst Sweden are highly likely to qualify with a win (the only stipulation would be if Ireland were to beat Italy by 2 goals more than Sweden beat Belgium). Anything but a victory for Zlatan and co. will lead to elimination from the tournament, which is the same situation Ireland are in.
Having watched all four games so far involving these sides, I quite fancy Ireland to get something from a rested Italian side even if it isn't enough to save their place at Euro 2016. In the other game, I expect Belgium to be too strong for a Swedish side that I have been thoroughly unimpressed with thus far, winning fairly comfortably. The Belgian victory and Ireland to Win or Draw their game is tasty odds 37/20.
In what has proved to be the most unpredictable group so far; Hungary, who are assured of a top 3 finish, sit at the top of the pile, with Iceland just behind them. Disappointing Portual are behind them, with underachieving Austria propping up the group.
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Take nothing away from the Hungarians, who have played well and deserve their points, but if I'd told you that they'd be at the top of a group with Portugal and Austria in you'd have laughed in my face; and rightly so. No-one expected Portugal to struggle so much and everyone expected so much more of an Austria side that's brimming with talent but has only managed to earn a single point.
Hungary are safe in the knowledge that picking up a point at minimum would see them finish as group winners, whilst a victory for Portugal would mean the same for them. A win for Iceland would guarantee their qualification, whilst Austria are reliant on results going in their favour to qualify automatically but know a win would see them finish 3rd.
Whilst they've been very poor and very, very wasteful thus far, I expect Portugal to limp to at least a draw against Hungary. In the other game, as romantic as it would be for Iceland to pick up a win and qualify, I think Austria will be too good defensively and the two sides will play out a stalemate in Saint-Denis. This would see Portugal qualify as group winners, with Hungary not far behind in 2nd and Iceland claiming 3rd place. The double is a very decent 7/2.
A ten-fold accumulator across all the predicted results would return £885.78.
Now, here's where we get to the good stuff. Deciding the fixtures for the last 16 ties. Based on our predictions, five of the six 3rd placed sides are set to finish with 3 points - meaning goal difference will settle who finishes higher, with Ireland being automatically eliminated with 2 points. Therefore, we've predicted the exact results involving the four remaining teams (excluding Albania who have 3 points due to already playing) to determine a goal difference: Slovakia 1-2 England, Northern Ireland 0-2 Germany, Turkey 1-0 Czech Republic and Iceland 1-1 Austria.
This means the final ranking is this order: Iceland (0), Slovakia (-1), Northern Ireland (-1), Albania (-2) and Turkey (-3); thus eliminating Turkey and giving these last 16 fixtures...
