Even though the excitement of the Euros is enough to make a grown man forget about his wife, his kids and his responsibilities, the confusion regarding who will face who and why in the last 16 ties still looms as we approach the final group games. Thankfully, we've worked it out for you...
Since this is the first year that the European Championships has expanded to 24 teams, you can be excused for being unsure about how it works. Don't bother putting in hours of research to work it out for yourself either, because we've done the hard work. Not to mention the fact UEFA will inevitably expand the entire tournament to 32 teams next time around anyway, citing the success of the 24 team tournament and giving Scotland a chance to finally qualify for something...
At Euro 2016, four of the six third placed teams will qualify for the knockout stages. The teams are first ranked by points, then by their goal difference. If that doesn't separate them it comes down to goals scored, followed by their fair play record and finally; their UEFA coefficient record. The top four will then play in the knockout rounds.
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This is where it gets a bit tricky - who plays who. UEFA have developed some crazy coefficient to determine this which, in reality, is a bit harsh on the Winners of Group E and Group F and the runners-up from Group D and Group E who play each other respectively. Whilst the rest of the Group Winners all play 3rd placed teams and the other runners-up play each other. It's all a bit confusing and doesn't really make much sense.
To decide which Group winners play which 3rd placed teams, UEFA have developed a table. It takes some figuring out but essentially whichever groups make up the top four 3rd placed teams defines which of the teams the Group Winners will play. For example, as it stands Groups B, C, D and F make up the top four - therefore the winner of Group A would play the 3rd placed team from Group C and so on..
'So what does this mean for the home nations?' I hear you ask. Well, as it stands England (who are currently top of Group B) would face the Czech Republic from Group D. Wales, on the other hand, would face the runner-up of Group F - which is currently Iceland. Both sides could still finish 3rd in their groups though. A heavy defeat for the English against Slovakia tomorrow would be the only thing to stop England qualifying as one of the best 3rd placed sides and results would have to go heavily against them. Wales, on the other hand, are in real danger of finishing 3rd so will be eager to pick up points against Russia.
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Northern Ireland, currently ranked as the top 3rd placed side, would face hosts France in the knockout round as it stands but with a game against Germany looming, I don't expect them to remain there so they will need results to go their way if they do lose to Germany to qualify as one of the best 3rd place teams (note: they can't be caught by Ukraine so will finish 3rd or higher)
Republic of Ireland are in the most danger of all the 'home nations'. A well deserved draw against Sweden was followed by a disappointing drubbing at the hands of a rejuvenated Belgian side and the Green Army must now face Group leaders Italy to stand any chance of qualifying for the last 16.
As unlikely as it is, here's how the knockout ties would look if everything stayed exactly the same as it is now.
Words By: @joshuapsjones