Liam Lawson’s F1 future may have already been decided by key Racing Bulls call

Liam Lawson has been the subject of increasing speculation over his F1 future with Racing Bulls - but a key decision already made by the team might give some insight into their thinking.

Lawson secured his 12th points-scoring finish of the season at the Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia, crossing the line in seventh place.

The New Zealander has had an impressive campaign alongside rookie teammate Arvid Lindblad, outscoring him by 27 points and even deputising for Isack Hadjar for three races after the Frenchman suffered a wrist injury. In the background, though, there is no confirmation over whether he will have a seat for 2027.

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Racing Bulls may have made key call over Liam Lawson's future

Racing Bulls are one of only two teams on the grid - the other being Haas - to have not yet confirmed either of their drivers for 2027.

Lawson's situation is unusual in that he was promoted to Red Bull at the beginning of the 2025 season, dropped back down to Racing Bulls after two race, and has since driven for both teams.

If another driver steps in to the fold at Racing Bulls, it appears likely to be Red Bull academy driver Nikola Tsolov, who led the Formula 2 championship prior to Baku.

Nikola Tsolov is currently driving for Campos Racing in F2 (Image: Getty)

The New Zealand Herald reported last month that Tsolov had been linked to Racing Bulls for 2027 but, notably, as their reserve driver.

If the team did want Tsolov in their car for 2027, one potential method of preparing him for the seat would be to allow him to drive in a free practice session on Friday.

F1 regulations mandate that each team must allocate four FP1 sessions to a rookie driver; two for each of their cars.

A rookie driver is defined as someone who has not competed in more than two F1 races during their career, meaning Lindblad was able to fulfil the requirement on his side of the garage himself during the Australian and Chinese Grands Prix.

Racing Bulls have used up one of the two sessions on Lawson's side of the garage, in Austria. But on that occasion, Ayumu Iwasa was chosen to replace the Kiwi, rather than Tsolov.

There is still one more weekend in which Racing Bulls can give an opportunity to a rookie driver - by which point a decision over their 2027 drivers may have been made.

But for now, it definitely does not appear as if Tsolov is anything like a certainty to take the seat, especially as the 19-year-old has been overtaken by Rafael Camara at the top of the F2 standings after two weekends without a victory.

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Ralf Schumacher believes Racing Bulls have already decided their 2027 drivers

According to former Toyota, Williams and Jordan F1 driver Ralf Schumacher, Lawson will not be driving for Racing Bulls next season.

"I believe Arvid Lindblad will stay, and that they'll give Tsolov a chance," he told Sky Sports Germany.

"All this switching has also shown that Lawson certainly did a good job this year. But he simply couldn't deliver that extra something that was expected of him [in the Red Bull]. That's why he's no longer at Red Bull, but Hadjar is there. This is the junior team, and that's what it's there for.

"Lawson has been here for a long time. He's returned to the team, and he deserves it. But if I want to focus on the next superstar, I have to make a change now. In the long term, you need someone ... Tsolov is a promising talent, and you have to give a young driver a chance. You can rely on Lindblad, he can now take on the more experienced role in the team for next year."

If Lawson is dropped, the 24-year-old would only have Haas as an option if he were to continue on the F1 grid in 2027.

Alternatively, he could follow the route taken by Yuki Tsunoda, who was dropped by Red Bull at the end of last season, and become Red Bull's reserve driver. But even that would have its pitfalls; Tsunoda replaced Lawson at Racing Bulls earlier this year when he deputised for Hadjar, but now himself faces the prospect of Haas or nothing in pursuit of his return to the grid.