2025/26 Premier League season simulated by football data site 1 million times and the results are fascinating

A football data website has run one million simulations of the upcoming Premier League season to determine how many times each team would win England's top flight, with Manchester United lifting the trophy on 163 occasions.

We are just 10 days away from the opening Premier League fixture of the 2025/26 campaign, where reigning champions Liverpool will come up against Bournemouth.

Arne Slot's side are the betting favourites to retain their crown as they go into this month's game with a host of new signings, including Florian Wirtz and Hugo Ekitike, while Arsenal, Manchester City and Chelsea are also contenders.

Football data website Fusion Sim, meanwhile, has conducted an experiment to see how many times each Premier League team would win the title after one million simulations.

Unsurprisingly, big-spenders Liverpool are top with 36.37% of victories, which translates to 363,744 wins out of a possible 1,000,000.

Liverpool are favourites to lift this season's Premier League title. Image credit:

It was a pretty close call between second and third place as eight-time winners Manchester City clinched the silver medal with 315,617 [31.56%] of wins compared to Mikel Arteta's Arsenal, who recorded just over 300,000 victories [30.02%].

Enzo Maresca's Chelsea are fourth in the rankings having lifted just 8,518 [0.85%] titles, which highlights the startling difference between the previously mentioned top three and the rest of the league.

So, what about the rest? As per aaronw_data's study, Unai Emery's Aston Villa brought home the Premier League trophy on 5,136 occasions [0.51%] across the simulation, while Newcastle United lifted the title 4,618 times, which works out 0.46%.

European hopefuls Crystal Palace shocked the world with more than 1,500 wins [0.15%] and Brighton were the next most successful after picking up 394 victories [0.04%].

Manchester United struggle in their quest for Premier League glory

They may have strengthened their attacking line this summer with the additions of Matheus Cunha and Bryan Mbuemo, but Ruben Amorim's side could only win the Premier League on 163 occasions [0.016%] out of a possible one million.

Thomas Frank's Tottenham, meanwhile, managed just 16 wins [0.0016%] while Brentford [11], Bournemouth [3], Everton [3], Nottingham Forest [2] and Fulham [1] also managed silverware.

TikTok user aaronw_data used Fusion Sim to perform the simulation.

In terms of those who failed in their quest for a Premier League title, newly-promoted sides Burnley, Leeds and Sunderland never lifted the trophy alongside West Ham and Wolves.