Man Utd's title chances rated by complex prediction system, it's not good news for Ten Hag

A data led system has predicted the finishing places of all 20 Premier clubs, and has given Manchester United just a 2 per cent chance of winning the title.

Following Manchester City's 3-1 win over Arsenal on Wednesday evening, the Red Devils are now just five points adrift of first place in the Premier League.

Erik ten Hag's side have been in fine fettle since the World Cup came to an end, winning 11 of their last 14 matches.

They are also the only club to remain in all four cup competitions available to them, with a mouth-watering Europa League clash against Barcelona to play on Thursday.

Goals from Marcus Rashford and Alejandro Garnacho most recently secured victory over Leeds, as they put themselves in contention for the trophy.

However, score prediction website FiveThirtyEight has put a dent in fans' title hopes.

Man Utd tipped to finish third

The calculations are the result of a complex rating and prediction system which draws on data from ESPN, Opta and the Engsoccerdata GitHub repository.

It predicts Manchester City will win the league with 83 points, whilst Arsenal will finish second with 81 points.

Although it forecasts Manchester United to finish a whole nine points below the Gunners, with just a three per cent chance of winning the league, compared to City's 62% and Arsenal's 34%.

It has placed Newcastle in fourth, Brighton in fifth and Tottenham in seventh. Whilst Liverpool have been projected to finish above Chelsea in eighth, well outside the European places.

Everton, Bournemouth and Southampton have all been tipped for relegation.

Ten Hag plays down title chances

At the start of the campaign, many United fans would bitten your arm off at the prospect of Champions League qualification. However, recent results have seen them surpass expectations, and drawn them into the title race.

Meanwhile, Ten Hag has played down their title chances, insisting they have "a lot to improve".

Speaking after United's dramatic 2-1 win over local rivals Manchester City in January, the Dutchman said: "The fans may dream but we're not.

"We have to keep our feet on the ground and then face that our game has a lot to improve."