The Golden Boot race is heating up, but can these superstars drag their countries all the way in the knockout rounds?
The group stage is officially in the rearview mirror, the drama is locked in, and the tournament has shifted to the ruthless, unforgiving world of single-elimination football. Welcome to the round of 32.
If you’ve been tracking the action so far, one thing is glaringly obvious: the heavy hitters have firmly arrived. Kylian Mbappé coasted into the knockouts with France, tracking right at the top of the scoring charts alongside a vintage Lionel Messi, who is singlehandedly proving that ageing millennials can still be good at football. Right behind them, England’s Harry Kane and Norwegian Norse god Erling Haaland are sniffing around.
The round of 32 might be early days, but all these football big dogs will be hoping their nation can go all the way, and there’s a fair chance if you’re looking at the Neds Outright Winner, these superstars will play a part.
The Knockout Kings vs. the Ultimate Team Test
History tells us that while the group stage goes to plan, the knockout rounds tend to go off script, and we have the receipts to prove it. In 2002, South Korea sent four-time winners Italy packing in the round of 16, while Spain were shown the door early in 2018 against Russia and 2022 against Morocco.
Basically, when sudden death arrives, it’s anyone's game, and the round of 32 is guaranteed to throw up a few curveballs. The big powerhouse nations, including France, Spain, England, Argentina, Germany and host USA, will fancy themselves to go all the way, but having a top talisman is only half the battle. One thing we know about tournament football is to expect the unexpected, and with this tournament serving up more than a few plucky underdogs, the round of 32 is destined to see an upset.
Finding Value in the Heartbreak Market
Instead of just backing the heavy favourites to lift the trophy, the real value for punters right now might lie in predicting a team’s Stage of Elimination.
Take France, for example. Universally feared, but their side of the bracket is an absolute minefield. Mbappé could comfortably score another three or four goals to secure his personal silverware, only for France’s backline to crumble against a rampant Spain or Germany before the final. While this would be tres sad for Mbappe, that’s the magic of football.
Meanwhile, closer to home, the mighty Socceroos will be looking to continue their giant slaying run as they take on Mo Salah’s Egypt on Saturday morning. Egypt will be favourites to qualify, but with Australia’s Irankunda on fire there’s value in backing our boys to stage an upset.
The same goes for England and Harry Kane. The Three Lions always get talked about as potential winners, but we’ve seen this script play out before. A team stacked with talent, Kane scoring goals for fun, what could possibly go wrong?
And yet, if any country is prone to a banana skin moment, it’s the English.
To make matters worse, the English famously unravel in penalty shootouts, and with the round of 32 featuring the shootouts, it’s not beyond the realm of possibility that this golden generation might crash and burn.
Can Messi Deliver One Last Fairytale?
Last but not least, the fairytale is still alive for Argentina and Messi looks determined to drag them deeper into the tournament through sheer force of will. At 39 years old, he’s broken every record that exists and shows no signs of stopping. But can he carry the entire weight of a nation through a high-intensity knockout match without the tank hitting empty?
So, who is your money on? Will Mbappé’s knockout pedigree guarantee France a spot in the final, or are you looking at the Neds Stage of Elimination market and predicting an early flight home for one of the tournament favourites?
From individual masterclasses to heartbreaking exits – get the latest Outright Winner and Stage of Elimination odds at Neds today.
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Topics: Football, Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappe
The SPORTbible Team