A financial expert has made a huge claim about Manchester City's potential punishment if they are found guilty in their 115 charges with the Premier League.
In February 2023, City were accused of 115 breaches of financial rules by the Premier League before the two parties engaged in a legal battle, which is now awaiting an official verdict.
The case was concluded in December and the outcome is now being decided by a three-person Independent Commission panel.
City's charges are in relation to alleged breaches of Premier League financial rules over a nine-year period from 2009 to 2018. The club have always strenuously denied all changes, with David Ornstein of The Athletic stressing the Premier League champions are "totally confident they will be exonerated and prove their innocence".
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In terms of possible punishments should they be found guilty, it's claimed that the commission would have the right to enforce a points deduction.
But having read the commission reports from the cases with Everton and Nottingham Forest, which led to both being deducted points, Kieran McGuire believes City's separate and more complex case would need a much heavier sanction that would effectively relegate them.
"It will be," McGuire said on The Overlap when asked if City are likely to be deducted points if found guilty.
"The tariffs from the commissions from both Everton and Forest set the way forward. There's no point fining a billionaire owner a few quid because there's no disincentive to misbehave.
"If you read the commision reports and it's probably about as exciting as watching Brighton vs Forest at the weekend - if you read them from cover to cover - they both say that these were minor breaches of the rules.
"And what Manchester City are being accused of is corporate fraud over the period of nearly a decade. If guilty you've got to add a zero to the points deductions that we've seen for Forest and Everton.
"If not guilty, there's going to be a lot of trouble."
McGuire has previously said that if City were to lose the case, there would be "very narrow grounds for appeal" and they would need to find that the "conduct of the committee itself was unprofessional in some way".
What are the 115 charges?
- Failure to provide accurate and up-to-date financial information from 2009/10 to and including 2017/18 - 54 alleged breaches
- Failure to cooperate with Premier League investigations from December 2018 to February 2023 - 35 alleged breaches
- Failure to provide accurate financial reports for player and manager compensation from 2009/10 to and including 2017/18 - 14 alleged breaches
- Breaches of Premier League profitability and sustainability regulations from 2015/16 to and including 2017/18 - Seven alleged breaches
- Failure to comply with UEFA's regulations, including UEFA's Club Licensing and Financial Fair Play regulations - Five alleged breaches
McGuire added: "Ultimately there's going to be a penalty and that penalty is going to be decided by the commission.
"I think the one concern people have is what happens if City are found innocent of the accusations of inflating money coming into the club and paying players off book but they've been found guilty of not cooperating with the Premier League, in which case they'll get a fine because that's what UEFA did."
Matt Hughes, formerly of The Times, has claimed that from people he has spoken to, "there seems to be no appetite" for retrospective punishment - meaning City are unlikely to be stripped of any Premier League titles if found guilty.
The verdict will have a monumental impact on English football whichever outcome is decided but City boss Pep Guardiola has already confirmed he will be staying put and recently signed a new two-year contract extension.
Topics: Manchester City, Premier League
Josh Lawless