World Cup Golden Boot race explained as one extra game could change everything

France forward Kylian Mbappe is currently leading the closest Golden Boot race in decades, although the standings could shift dramatically ahead of Sunday's World Cup final in New Jersey.

Back in 2022, the Golden Boot was awarded to Mbappe after he scored a hat-trick in the final against Argentina.

Ahead of that game, both Mbappe and Lionel Messi entered the Lusail Stadium in Qatar with five goals to their name, a pattern that could repeat itself if France and Argentina reach this year's final.

At the time of writing, they are tied on eight goals each, although Mbappe is technically leading the race after notching three assists across the tournament.

Mbappe will be hoping to find the net when France take on Spain in Tuesday's semi-final, while eight-time Ballon d'Or winner Messi could improve his chances with a goal against England on Wednesday.

Kylian Mbappe won the Golden Boot at the 2022 World Cup. Image. credit: Getty

Of course, reaching the final would provide another opportunity to score but the often-overlooked third-place play-off could also give them the chance to add to their Golden Boot tally.

The third-place game will be played on Saturday (July 18), just a day before the World Cup final.

Last time around, Croatia secured a 2-1 win over Morocco in the third-place play-off thanks to goals from Josko Gvardiol and Mislav Orsic.

How is the Golden Boot decided?

• The award will be handed to the player who scores the most goals in the final competition.
• If two or more players score the same number of goals, the number of assists (as determined by the members of the FIFA Technical Study Group) shall be decisive.
• If two or more players are still equal after taking into account the number of assists, the total minutes played in the tournament will be taken into account, with the player playing fewer minutes ranked first.

Who are the contenders for the Golden Boot?

• Kylian Mbappe (8 goals + 3 assists)
• Lionel Messi (8 goals + 2 assists)
• Jude Bellingham (7 goals + )
• Harry Kane (6 goals + 1 assists)
• Ousmane Dembele (5 goals + 2 assists)

World Cup Golden Boot predictions ahead of semi-final games

Kylian Mbappe has a 57% chance of defending his Golden Boot crown, according to Betfair Predicts.

Lionel Messi, who has scored in all but one World Cup game this summer, has a 30% chance of winning the prize, while Harry Kane (6%) and Jude Bellingham (4%) are currently outsiders with the bookies.

Every previous Golden Boot winner since 2002

2022 — Kylian Mbappe (8 goals + 2 assists)

2018 — Harry Kane (6 goals)

2014 — James Rodríguez (6 goals + 2 assists)

2010 — Thomas Muller (5 goals + 3 assists)

2010 — Diego Forlan (5 goals + 1 assist)

2010 — Wesley Sneijder (5 goals + 1 assist)

2010 — David Villa (5 goals + 1 assist)

2006 — Miroslav Klose (5 goals + 3 assists)

2002 — Ronaldo (8 goals)