World Cup Play-Off Draw Sim: Ireland, Wales and Northern Ireland Learn Fate
The nations missed out on automatic qualification for the 2026 World Cup despite winning their final qualifiers.
SPORTbible has simulated the World Cup play-off draw - which is set to take place on November 20 - with Wales, Northern Ireland, and the Republic of Ireland among the sides set to learn their route to the finals.
The UEFA play-off draw will take place in Switzerland on November 20 and involves the 12 teams that finished second in their respective qualifying groups, as well as the four best-ranked Nations League teams.
Just four spots are available at the World Cup for the 16 European hopefuls, with each nation playing two knockout fixtures – a one-legged semi-final and final - to confirm their spot in North America.
The 12 group runners-up will enter the top three pots, with the four Nations League group winners in pot four.
Advert
Each play-off path is composed of the two semi-final pairings of one seeded team and one unseeded team. The seeded teams will boast home advantage in the play-off semi.
One team from each pot will be drawn into four separate paths: Path A, Path B, Path C, and Path D.
Each of the semi-final winners from the respective paths will play against one another in the four final matches, with the winner of those fixtures taking the final four qualifying berths and progressing to the World Cup.
The matches will take place during March’s international break, with the semi-finals commencing on the 26th of the month, while the finals get underway five days later.
The paths to the final will be determined via Thursday’s (November 20) draw, as well as which teams get the home advantage for the respective finals of the play-off round.
Wales, Northern Ireland, and the Republic of Ireland are among those that all take part.
Pot 1 is made up of Italy, Denmark, Turkey, and Ukraine.
Pot 2 will include Poland, Wales, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia.
Pot 3 has the Republic of Ireland, Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, and Kosovo.
Pot 4 has Romania, Sweden, North Macedonia, and Northern Ireland in it.
Who can Wales face?
Craig Bellamy’s side could potentially face Albania, Bosnia, Kosovo, or the Republic of Ireland in Cardiff in the semi.
If they progress, they could face Italy, Denmark, Turkey, Ukraine, OR Northern Ireland, North Macedonia, Romania, or Sweden in the final.
Of course, come Thursday, the fixtures will be confirmed for the semi-finals, to determine which pot one or pot four side will be awaiting them in a final.
Who can Northern Ireland face?
Michael O’Neill’s Northern Ireland secured their play-off spot via the Nations League despite not finishing in the top two of their UEFA qualifying group.
Northern Ireland could face Italy, Denmark, Turkey, or Ukraine in the semi-finals of the play-offs.
If the side progresses, they face a potential final against a pot two or three side.
Who can the Republic of Ireland face?
Troy Parrott’s brilliance against Portugal and Hungary secured Heimir Hallgrimsson’s side’s spot in the play-off.
The 23-year-old, who plays his club football for AZ Alkmaar, scored a brace in the 2-0 win over Portugal before scoring a hat-trick in the 3-2 win against Hungary in Budapest.
Ireland will face either Poland, Wales, Czechia, or Slovakia away from home on March 26th.
UEFA World Cup play-off draw simulation
SPORTbible put the teams through a simulator and returned the following results:
Path A
Ukraine (Pot 1) vs Sweden (Pot 4)
Wales (Pot 2) vs Bosnia-Herzegovina (Pot 3)
The winner of Ukraine vs Sweden will face the victor of Wales vs Bosnia in the play-off final. As previously noted, home advantage will be determined through the UEFA draw.
Path B
Italy (Pot 1) vs Northern Ireland (Pot 4)
Poland (Pot 2) vs Kosovo (Pot 3)
Italy or Northern Ireland will face Poland or Kosovo in a potential final.
Path C
Turkey (Pot 1) vs Romania (Pot 4)
Slovakia (Pot 2) vs the Republic of Ireland (Pot 3)
Turkey or Romania will face Slovakia or Ireland in a potential final.
Path D
Denmark (Pot 1) vs North Macedonia (Pot 4)
Czech Republic (Pot 2) vs Albania (Pot 3)
Denmark or North Macedonia will face the Czech Republic or Albania for a spot at the World Cup.
Topics: UEFA, Wales, Northern Ireland, Republic of Ireland, Football
Luke Davies