Supercomputer predicts Champions League winner after quarter-finals draw

The Champions League winners will come from the toughest side of the draw, according to a Supercomputer that has predicted how the tournament plays out.

On Friday, the quarter finals and semi finals were drawn for UEFA's number one competition, after the last 16 was concluded on Wednesday.

There was certainly a split in the draw, with champions Real Madrid along with Manchester City and Bayern Munich all potentially set to face each other.

Those three favourites for the title were also joined by Chelsea, who may be out of sorts in the Premier League but still won the European title in 2021.

On the other half, there was three Italian teams, in the shape of Napoli, AC Milan, Inter Milan and Benfica, guaranteeing at least one in the semis and a 3/4 chance of one being in the final.

That led to claims from some fans that the draw had been 'rigged' in favour of the Serie A teams, who haven't won the Champions League since Inter's treble under Jose Mourinho in 2010.

Despite the fact that City would have to get through two of the last three winners just to get to the final, and have never won it themselves before, they are 10% more likely to win it than anyone else.

According to analysts FiveThirtyEight, Pep Guardiola's side have a 28% chance of finally winning it, whilst Bayern are rated as having the second best chance at 18%.

Interestingly Napoli are given the third best chance of winning it, at 17%, but are the team with the most chance of getting to the final, at 43%, compared to City's 40%.

Each team's chance of winning the Champions League. FiveThirtyEight

ThirtyFiveEight's 'SPI' works out the rating of each team based on their overall strength, worked out on how many goals they'd be expected to score and concede against an 'average team on a neutral field.'

Napoli's high chances of making the semi finals and final is based on the fact they first face Milan, the worst ranked side left in the competition.

If they make their way past a side 20 points behind them in Serie A then they will face either Benfica or Inter, the fifth and sixth ranked sides.

Simone Inzaghi's team are also 18 points behind Napoli in the title race, as Luciano Spalletti's team look set to win the league for the first time since 1990.

Should the 'likely' final happen, Spalletti certainly won't be playing into Guardiola's mind games, having given them short shrift in a recent press conference.