Major Man City punishment stance emerges after club appeal Premier League ruling

Further details on the potential punishment Manchester City may face should the independent commission’s verdict be upheld have emerged - and they might not be relegated after all.

Last week, the independent commission’s verdict on the Premier League’s investigation into Manchester City’s finances between 2009 and 2018 was released.

City were found guilty of 114 of the 115 charges set against them, with the Premier League releasing a scathing statement on Tuesday in which it said City had used “sham contracts” to inflate revenue and reduce costs.

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What punishment could City face?

According to the Premier League, City were found to have arranged disguised funding schemes worth more than £830million with commercial partners.

Several potential punishments are possible, with suggestions of a points deduction, automatic relegation, the stripping of titles and expulsion from the Premier League, all put forward.

On October 3, football finance expert Kieran Maguire broke down the precedents already set by similar cases involving Chelsea, Everton and Nottingham Forest, explaining how his ‘gut feeling’ is telling him that City will likely receive a deduction of 50 to 60 points.

He told talkSPORT: “As far as the outcome is concerned, I think we've got to look at precedent.

“Chelsea were given significant fines from both the Football Association - and remember, the Football Association might take this up later - and from the Premier League for around £20m over their financial misdemeanours, not registering payments to unauthorised agents and so on.

“So you would expect that to be quite significant. Also, it was noticeable in the Chelsea claim that the club agreed to pay the Premier League legal costs, which were quite substantial. These are going to be far bigger.

“So we're probably talking about £50m-£60m, in all probability, plus a substantial fine.

“Then, of course, we've got the precedent of Nottingham Forest, Everton and Leicester City, all of whom breached the PSR limits and were given points deductions.

“Now, the logic behind that is that if you spend more money on players, it gives you an advantage on the pitch, and that advantage on the pitch should be punished with a punishment on the pitch in the form of a points deduction.

“Given that the Man City offences took place over a longer period of time — therefore, it's multiple offences over multiple years — you would expect a multiple of the points deductions that we've seen.

“We don't know by how much Man City exceeded the PSR limits, and we're now working on the basis of reading some of the former reports that it works out as a three-point deduction to kick off with, plus one extra point per extra £6.5m over the limit. So that will form a rough basis.

“And then there's a further issue: have you assisted with the investigation? We'll suggest they probably haven't. So that's called an aggregating factor, and the panel could subsequently give an additional points deduction on top of that.

“If all of those are proven post-appeal, my gut reaction is we would be looking for somewhere in the region of perhaps 50 to 60 points.

“If it's more than 70 points, they're effectively relegated.

“From a drama point of view — and I appreciate the commission's not interested in the drama — you give Man City a 50-point deduction, they go to minus 35, there are 33 matches left to play for; you've actually got a fantastic story.”

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What is the latest from City?

City have appealed the verdict, with the club confirming the decision in the following statement on October 2: “Manchester City Football Club can confirm that, at 7pm on Thursday 1st October 2026, the Club lodged its comprehensive Appeal against the opinion of the Premier League Commission in relation to the Premier League disciplinary matter.

“The Club’s firm position is that, on multiple grounds, the opinion contains clear material errors of law, principle and fact and is unsafe.

“The Club is innocent of the accusations made by the Premier League, and a comprehensive body of irrefutable evidence exists in support of all of its positions relating to this case.

“We will continue to respect due process and are necessarily restricted in what we can say further until all proceedings are complete.”

The appeal, which will be heard in private before a three-person independent commission panel, should conclude within 12 weeks, with a decision made public within 30 days of that date.

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