Study finds Arsenal have been one of the Premier League's luckiest teams this season
Arsenal have been one of the luckiest teams in the Premier League this season, according to a new study.
The Gunners currently sit top of the Premier League table, three points ahead of Manchester City having played a game more.
Mikel Arteta's side are now no longer in control of their own destiny, but know that five consecutive wins and a big increase in goal difference - if City match their results - will at least give them a chance.
Four of Arsenal's seven wins in 2026 have been via a single goal, while they have crucially dropped points against Manchester City, Nottingham Forest, Bournemouth, Wolves, Brentford, Manchester United and Liverpool all since the turn of the year.
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But the Gunners still rank highly when it comes to purely luck, according to a new study by The Pools.
The study analyses the performances of each of the 20 Premier League clubs this season based on six key factors - posts hit for/against, goals versus expected goals, VAR errors for/against, total injuries, own goals scored and points gained from the 85th minute onwards.
The Gunners are adjudged to have had five incorrect VAR decisions go in their favour - something which will provide little solace after the chaotic VAR events of Wednesday's Champions League semi-final against Atletico Madrid.
They scored eight points out of 10 in the VAR metric, a full 10 for own goals, and 9.5 for goals versus xG.
Overall, Arsenal scored 45/60 on the 'luck index', placing them second behind Aston Villa.
Conversely, Manchester City placed all the way down in 11th, having scored 4.5 on posts hit for/against and 2.5 on injuries. Pep Guardiola's side have been hit by various unavailability crises this season.
Fans of already relegated Burnley and Wolves, meanwhile, will not want to dwell on the study too much, as they rank fourth and eighth despite their torrid seasons at the bottom of the table.
Manchester United, meanwhile, sit seventh, scoring the maximum 10 points on goals scored after 85 minutes following a number of comeback victories under Michael Carrick.
Premier League 'Luck Index' 2025/26
1) Aston Villa - 47 (out of 60)
2) Arsenal - 45
3) Fulham - 45
4) Burnley - 44.5
5) Sunderland - 43.5
6) West Ham - 42.5
7) Manchester United - 42
8) Wolves - 38.5
9) Everton - 37.5
10) Nottingham Forest - 37.5
11) Manchester City - 36.5
12) Brentford - 34.5
13) Bournemouth - 34
14) Brighton - 32.5
15) Spurs - 32.5
16) Liverpool - 32
17) Leeds - 31.5
18) Chelsea - 25.5
19) Crystal Palace - 24.5
20) Newcastle - 20
Club | Post hit for/against | Goals vs xG | VAR Errors for/against | Total Injuries | Own Goals Scored | Points gained/lost from 85' onwards | TOTAL / 60 |
Aston Villa | 3.5 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 8 | 8 | 9.5 | 47 |
Arsenal | 7 | 9.5 | 8 | 3 | 10 | 7.5 | 45 |
Fulham | 8.5 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 7.5 | 45 |
Burnley | 9 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 4.5 | 44.5 |
Sunderland | 9.5 | 6.5 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 9.5 | 43.5 |
West Ham | 10 | 5.5 | 7 | 10 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 42.5 |
Man United | 3.5 | 7.5 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 42 |
Wolves | 8.5 | 2 | 9.5 | 9 | 5 | 4.5 | 38.5 |
Everton | 5.5 | 4.5 | 5 | 9.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 37.5 |
Forest | 8.5 | 7 | 7 | 4.5 | 5 | 5.5 | 37.5 |
Man City | 4.5 | 8 | 8 | 2.5 | 9 | 4.5 | 36.5 |
Brentford | 5.5 | 2.5 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 8.5 | 34.5 |
Bournemouth | 4.5 | 3.5 | 10 | 8 | 1.5 | 6.5 | 34 |
Brighton | 4.5 | 4 | 8.5 | 4 | 5 | 6.5 | 32.5 |
Spurs | 6.5 | 10 | 6 | 0.5 | 5 | 4.5 | 32.5 |
Liverpool | 6 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 32 |
Leeds | 7.5 | 2.5 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 3.5 | 31.5 |
Chelsea | 3.5 | 1 | 9.5 | 1 | 5 | 5.5 | 25.5 |
Crystal Palace | 3.5 | 0.5 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 8.5 | 24.5 |
Newcastle | 3.5 | 3 | 5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 4.5 | 20 |
Topics: Premier League, Newcastle United, Man City, Man Utd
Ryan Smart