F1 2026 predictions: world champions, biggest flop, bold call of the season and more

The 2026 Formula 1 season finally kicks off this weekend with the Australian Grand Prix, and the SPORTbible team have locked in their predictions.

Lando Norris secured his maiden F1 title last time out in Abu Dhabi just a few months ago, but things couldn't be more different as we head to Melbourne.

F1 has undergone its biggest regulation change in the sport's history, with completely new chassis and power-units for the teams and drivers to get used to.

Due to the huge changes, the teams were able to complete more testing mileage than usual over the winter, with a week long shakedown in Barcelona followed by two weeks of testing in Bahrain.

During the tests, it was Ferrari who set the fastest times with Charles Leclerc setting all of the five fastest laps in Bahrain, however, it is widely understood Mercedes were hiding performance.

With the first qualifying session just hours away, the SPORTbible team have locked in their predictions for what is set to be a roller coaster of a season.

George Russell at the Australian Grand Prix (credit: getty)

2026 Driver Championship top three

Marcus Chan- George Russell, Max Verstappen, Kimi Antonelli

I'm jumping on the Mercedes hype train and backing George Russell to win his maiden world title. It'll be a tense and dramatic battle with Verstappen that will go down to the wire. Antonelli will be involved, but just fall short of the front two.

Tom Jenkins- George Russell, Max Verstappen, Charles Leclerc

Despite Ferrari's impressive testing performances I think Mercedes will have an edge in 2026, and if they are the fastest I have no doubts Russell has the ability to bring it home. I also have far more trust in Red Bull to develop the car for Verstappen throughout the season when compared to Ferrari's development.

Daniel Marland- George Russell, Max Verstappen, Oscar Piastri.

It feels like Russell’s time. He came fourth last season and Mercedes’ engine will give him long enough to build up a healthy lead before the summer break. Verstappen is a mainstay at the top of F1 nowadays, while Piastri will have a point to prove in a pivotal year (more on this later).

Ryan Smart- Lewis Hamilton, George Russell, Max Verstappen

I went with Lewis Hamilton to win the Drivers’ Championship last year, despite all the indications suggesting otherwise, so I’m sticking with him for what looks like it will prove to be a better season this year.

Ben McCrum- George Russell, Max Verstappen, Charles Leclerc

Mercedes will have their engine for long enough to let Russell build up a lead in the championship. Verstappen came 2nd with a bad car last year so I expect him to be even better this season, but still fall short.

2026 Constructor Champion

Marcus Chan- Mercedes

It has been widely mentioned that Mercedes have the best package to suit the new regulations, having predicted Russell and Antonelli in my top three, it is logical to say Mercedes will win the constructors' title.

Tom Jenkins- Mercedes

After four seasons without a constructors title, I think the crown will return to the silver arrows given their history when engine regulations change. However, I'm confident they won't be as dominant as 2014.

Daniel Marland- Mercedes

Russell’s dominance in the first part of the season and Kimi Antonelli’s continued development will see a new duo walk this campaign with ease.

Ryan Smart- Ferrari

If Hamilton is going to win the Drivers’ Championship, team-mate Charles Leclerc will surely not be too far back. Mercedes look like they will be frontrunners but the onus will be on Kimi Antonelli to close the gap to George Russell, and Isack Hadjar should at least challenge Max Verstappen at Red Bull.

Ben McCrum- Mercedes

I think Mercedes have the strongest combo of driver pair and car performance this year. I can’t see anyone else really coming close this year.

Flop of the season

Marcus Chan- Aston Martin

Having Adrian Newey is a big advantage, but from what we have seen from them in testing, it could be a long season for Aston Martin

Tom Jenkins- Lewis Hamilton

Unfortunately I fear the new regulations won't offer Hamilton the reset he needs, I can definitely see him having improved results but I'm not convinced he will be near Leclerc in the same machinery.

Daniel Marland- Lando Norris

The Brit secured his first title last time out, but I expect a dip. McLaren are fresh off the back of consecutive constructors’ championships, but it won’t be a third as tensions continue to bubble between Norris and Piastri.

Ryan Smart- Williams

Williams had a number of issues during testing and don’t look a good bet right now to match last season’s fifth-place finish.

Ben McCrum- McLaren

From securing Norris’ first title and back-to-back constructors championships I think McLaren will be bottom of the ‘big four’ this season, with neither driver in title contention.

Lewis Hamilton during the Bahrain test (credit: getty)

Bold prediction

Marcus Chan- Williams to win a race

Tough start to the season, but having had two podiums in 2025, I'm backing Williams to win their first Grand Prix since 2012, when Pastor Maldonado won in Barcelona.

Tom Jenkins- Lando Norris to fail to win a grand prix

After winning the back-to-back world championships I can see McLaren taking a step back in 2026, and Norris hasn't proven he can win races without the fastest car.

Daniel Marland- Kimi Antonelli wins a race

He achieved his first podium in Canada last June and I’m backing the 19-year-old to go one better this year. Antonelli learned how harsh the F1 world can be towards the end of 2025, but also showed glimpses of the talent Mercedes have been backing for six years.

Ryan Smart- One team outside of the ‘big four’ to win a race

With the new regulations, there are bound to be races that are power unit-specific in terms of performance, and we don’t yet know how wet weather will affect these cars. That could throw up a surprise or two at the top of the podium.

Ben McCrum- Haas will be best of the rest and have their best season yet with a podium finish.

Haas have really impressed in pre-season and I think could surprise people and make the most of some chaos at the front of the pack if it happens.

First driver change of 2026

Marcus Chan- Alpine (Aron for Colapinto)

I think Franco Colapinto will struggle, with Paul Aron getting the call to step up and drive alongside Pierre Gasly.

Tom Jenkins- Alpine (Dunne for Colapinto)

Flavio Briatore has made it very clear he is happy to sack drivers mid-season. Alex Dunne impressed last year in F2, and Briatore wouldn't have signed him if he wasn't a viable option.

Daniel Marland- Cadillac (Herta for Perez)

Cadillac are arriving in F1 with a lot of fanfare. F1 mainstays Valtteri Bottas and Sergio Perez are their pair for light’s out in Melbourne, but do I think they’re both going to be in Abu Dhabi in December? No. I’m expecting a Perez exit and stopgap driver until US prodigy Colton Herta obtains his super license.

Ryan Smart- No driver change

Ben McCrum- Alpine (Dunne for Colapinto)

Alpine look like they could be good at Colapinto is still at risk at the start of the season.

Ferrari constructors finish

Marcus Chan- 3rd

They looked very good in testing and look like they have the best launch off the line. However, I feel that in the long run, they will be behind the likes of Mercedes and McLaren.

Tom Jenkins- 2nd

I believe this will be the best year for a while at Ferrari but not enough to take the crown. Leclerc will maximise the car as usual, and with a better car Hamilton should be able to score his first podiums for the Scuderia.

Daniel Marland- 4th

Ryan Smart- 1st

Ben McCrum- 2nd

Even though Verstappen will do well, I think Ferrari have a stronger pairing and will finish ahead of Red Bull.

Biggest driver transfer for 2027

Marcus Chan- Hamilton retires and is replaced by Bearman

Tom Jenkins- Hamilton retires and is replaced by Bearman

If Hamilton suffers a similar pace deficit from 2025 to Leclerc, I fear it could be his last in F1. Ferrari luckily have the talented Bearman already waiting in the wings.

Daniel Marland- Hamilton retires and is replaced by Oscar Piastri

This is the big one. I’ve not yet mentioned Lewis Hamilton, as I sadly think the F1 legend calls it a day after yet another middling season with Ferrari. Charles Leclerc, in my opinion, is destined to always be the bridesmaid, but never the bride. Step forward, Oscar Piastri. After finally having enough of playing second-fiddle to Norris, I think he switches orange for red and drives for the iconic Scuderia as THE star name

Ryan Smart- Charles Leclerc to Aston Martin

If Aston Martin can't fix their early-season issues, Fernando Alonso may quickly make his mind up on whether to retire. Team owner Lawrence Stroll will want a big-name replacement and could take advantage of uncertainty over Leclerc’s Ferrari future.

Ben McCrum- Alonso retires replaced by Oscar Piastri

If Aston Martin clearly aren’t ready to challenge for a title, I can see Alonso finally calling it time on his career, opening the door for a big name to come in and lead the team into a more promising future.