Kevin Anderson v Marin Cilic: Over 36.5 Games - 10/11
If you caught my analysis and match preview of the Anderson - Kyrgios match earlier in the tournament, you won't be surprised to see me recommending this bet.
My thought process here, is that Anderson is playing at a high enough level to take a set off Cilic. Obviously, Cilic being the strong favourite, and his general level of play, you expect him to take a set also.
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Anderson, despite coming through in a fifth set against Kyle Edmund in his previous match, faced just 2 break point chances during the 4 hour match, and was broken just once.
This shows that Anderson is serving extremely well, and based on this I think Cilic will also find it difficult to break. Anderson broke Edmund's serve 3 times but more significantly he created 15 break point chances, and having watched the match closely from start to finish, I can tell you he should've won a lot more comfortably.
Cilic has a big serve, but I do expect Anderson to get his chances during a best of 5 set match, and given how well he is serving himself, if he does break, I think that will yield a set.
Another reason I'm liking the look of this bet is because Cilic hasn't really been tested so far this competition. He has faced Gulbis, Kravchuk and Lopez so far and although beating Lopez in straight sets was impressive, his first two opponents posed little threat of even taking a set off the Croatian.
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Physically, after the 4 hour match against Edmund, I'm not sure Anderson can beat Cilic today and although I think the odds on Cilic are too short, I won't be betting on Anderson to win the match.
I think this match is unlikely to be won in straight sets, I think given how well both players serve the sets will be tight, and I think Anderson is being undervalued by the bookies, and as a result the overs line in my opinion is extremely generous. This bet could land without even needing a fourth set.
Good luck.
Back Over 36.5 Games in this one at 10/11.
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Words By: @pgfootytips
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