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ODDSbible Football: Super Sunday Betting Preview

ODDSbible Football: Super Sunday Betting Preview

It's crunch time in the North London Derby.

Joshua Jones

Joshua Jones

After what can only be described as the most embarrassing Saturday the footballing world has ever seen, I'm fairly optimistic for what Sunday holds.

The curtain closes on the League One season today; whilst Manchester United host Swansea, Manchester City visit Middlesbrough, Chelsea travel to Everton and the North London Derby rounds off the day's Premier League action.

In the spirit of Anthony Joshua defeating Wladimir Klitschko last night, we're looking to land some blows on the bookies.

Manchester United v Swansea: 12:00 - BT Sport

Manchester United produced what can only be described as a 'textbook Jose Mourinho performance' when they visited their City rivals in midweek. It was 90 minutes of defensive endeavour it which neither side never really looked like doing anything special.

Swansea's visit to Old Trafford could be a welcome break for the Red Devils, who are said to be concentrating on Europa League glory - even if they are still in the hunt for Top Four. The Swans have lost 13 of their 17 away matches, with their only points against sides in the Top 12 coming on Merseyside.

This bodes well for a United side that struggles to put sides away, winning just three of their 13 home matches against sides between 3rd and 18th. Their nine draws in these games are why they aren't closer to challenging Chelsea, despite posting better defensive stats.

However, United look a real threat with the pace of Rashford down the middle and I think they can get the better of Paul Clement's side here. Take Manchester United -1 Handicap at 5/4.


Middlesbrough v Manchester City: 14:05

Pep Guardiola will have been frustrated by his side's failure to take advantage of their possession following their midweek draw with United, with his attacking players looking distinctly average and not for the first time this season.

The Citizens were boosted by the return of Gabriel Jesus, but it's the return of someone else that intrigues me more. Since Vincent Kompany's recovery from the Knee injury that's kept him out for the best part of the season, City have looked much more stable in defence - even with Claudio Bravo.

This is bad news for Middlesbrough though, who are the league's lowest scorers and second worst home side. Their shortcomings in front of goal are what sees them languishing in 19th, seven points from safety and surely with too much to do - even after beating rivals Sunderland in midweek.

This will be the first Premier League meeting between these two at Boro since back-to-back home wins in 2008 (including the infamous 8-1 drubbing), but City have already played at the Riverside once this season - winning 2-0 in the FA Cup quarter-finals. I see this one going much the same way, so back Manchester City Win to Nil at 11/10.

Everton v Chelsea: 14:05 - Sky Sports 1

This is a game I've been looking forward to for a while, as the league leaders visit one of the division's best home sides in what I'm now calling the Lukaku Derby. The Belgian brute has been in sublime form this season, firing the Toffees to a guarantee of European football next season and himself to the top of the goalscoring charts - it's no wonder his former club now want to be his next club too.

Chelsea got over what could have become a mini-stutter, after losing two in four, with sublime 4-2 victories over title rivals Tottenham Hotspur at Wembley in the FA Cup and Southampton at Stamford Bridge. They now have an opportunity to reopen their seven point gap at the top of the Premier League, before Spurs host Arsenal in the late kick-off.

I personally can't see past goals in this one. There have been 12 in Chelsea's last two games and 10 in Everton's last couple at Goodison Park - not to mention Conte's side's 5-0 masterclass the Bridge in November.

Their last couple of league meetings on Merseyside have finished 3-1 and 3-6, so Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 Goals looks generous at 21/20. I also really like the look of Over 3.5 Goals at 21/10.


Tottenham Hotspur v Arsenal: 16:30 - Sky Sports 1

In what could be Arsene Wenger's final North London Derby, Arsenal make the short and final trip to White Hart Lane (as we know it) languishing an incredible 14 points behind their rivals. A win for Tottenham means, unlikely as it already is, they mathematically cannot be caught and 'St. Totteringham's Day' will not be celebrated for the first time since 1995 and the only time during Wenger's reign.

The truth of it is whilst Arsenal haven't been great, they haven't exactly been terrible. The Gunners are a point better off than they were last season, with 9 more goals and an extra win. In fact, they're only two points worse off than their average over the last six years.

The real problem is the way that Mauricio Pochettino has this Spurs side playing. They're nine points and 12 goals better off than their best season and, on average, 15 points better off than over the last six years. They've won 12 home games in a row - including victories over Chelsea, Everton and Manchester City.

Goals have been a theme of North London derbies in recent years and I'm inclined to follow suit. Their last six meetings in all competitions - and 14 of their last 17 - have seen seen goals for both sides and I like Both Teams to Score at 8/15.

Spurs have also scored two or more in 16 of their 21 domestic home games, with Arsenal conceding at least twice in six of their seven visits to sides in the top half. Back Tottenham Over 1.5 Team Goals at 8/13.

League One

AFC Wimbledon v Oldham Athletic: 12:00

These are two sides with nothing left to play for here, with Oldham securing League One safety with a point against Rochdale last weekend. The Dons were never really in trouble and have looked a solid side all season.

An interesting stat for both though, in my opinion, is the frequency at which their games are 0-0 at Half-Time. A whopping 55% of Oldham's 22 away games have seen no first half goals, whilst 18 of Wimbledon's games - 6 of their last 8 at home - have followed suit.

Take HT Correct Score: 0-0 at 13/8 in this one.

Bristol Rovers v Millwall: 12:00

Millwall have been struggling to confirm their play-off place and may now have left it too late, following defeats to Fleetwood and Oxford, travelling to face a Bristol Rovers side that's red hot at Memorial Stadium.

The Gas have picked up 45 points in their 22 home games this season (the 3rd best record in the league) and haven't lost in their own backyard since November 2016. This doesn't bode well for Millwall who desperately need a win to guarantee themselves a play-off spot regardless of other results.

Something that caught my eye, similar to the game above, is these sides' half-time results. 50% of Rovers' home games and 50% of Millwall's away games have been level at the break, so I'm taking HT Result: Draw at 7/5.

A victory for the home side could lift them to 7th, their highest league position in years, and would represent a meteoric rise for a club that was playing Non-League football as recently as 2015.

Against a side that has won just one of their last eight away games, 3/4 on Bristol Rovers or Draw Double Chance represents ridiculous value. As does the 12/5 on Bristol Rovers to Win at smaller stakes. This could be the perfect send-off for First Team Coach Steve Yates in front of a packed ground.


Sheffield United v Chesterfield: 12:00

There's no way two sides that contrast more than these two could meet on the final day of the season.

Sheffield United are flying. The Blades are finally heading back to the Championship after struggling to get it right in League One for several years, returning to the 2nd division as League Winners. Meanwhile, Chesterfield are in turmoil. Relegated back to League Two with barely a whimper, dropping to the bottom of the league in recent weeks and never really looking likely to put up a fight.

United have sold out the 32,702 capacity Bramall Lane for tomorrow's showcase, and will be keen to put on a show before their fans. Manager Chris Wilder and a variety of players have already spoken on how keen they are to hit 100 points this season and I can't imagine Spireites putting up much of a fight.

I think Sheffield United Over 2.5 Team Goals at 4/5 is well worth backing, whilst Sheffield United Over 3.5 Team Goals at 12/5 could be a great shout at smaller stakes.

Northampton v Gillingham: 12:00

Elsewhere, I think the odds on Northampton at home to Gillingham are ridiculous just because the Gills need to win. They've needed to win games all season and haven't done so, so I'm not sure why there's such a discrepancy in their price.

The Kent club have conceded two or more in seven of their last eight away games and 5/4 on Northampton Over 1.5 Team Goals represents great value.


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