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Here's The Likelihood Of Each Last 16 Fixture

Here's The Likelihood Of Each Last 16 Fixture

We've done the maths and worked out how likely each potential last 16 fixture is..

Joshua Jones

Joshua Jones

As we head further towards its inevitable climax, the excitement that comes with each passing day at Euro 2016 is reaching fever pitch. What isn't fun, however, is the uncertainty that has come with the new format and the confusion regarding the possible fixtures; so we've gone ahead and worked them out for you all..

Due to the qualification of Northern Ireland and Slovakia tonight after Czech Republic's failure to beat Turkey, there are only four possible amalgamations of fixtures that can take place.

Those are featuring 3rd placed qualifiers from one of the following four combinations of groups: ABCD, BCDE, BCDF and BCEF.

Group A winners France can only face Northern Ireland or the potential qualifier from Group E in Lyon on Sunday. The likelihood is that they'll face the Green & White Army, with a 63% chance that the remaining 3rd place spots aren't taken by teams from Group E and Group F.

There is a 37% chance then, that that does happen and France face either Belgium, Sweden or Ireland.

The unlikely winners of Group B, Wales, are in a similar position to France as their fixture in Paris on Saturday hinges on the exact same parameters as the host nation.

Therefore, there is a 63% chance that Wales will face Turkey (who haven't yet qualified) and a 37% chance that they'll get the much more appealing tie from a neutral perspective, against Northern Ireland.

Northern Ireland
Northern Ireland

Germany qualified from Group C as winners without conceding a goal after an underwhelming 1-0 victory over the Northern Irish and their opponent looks much more nailed on than the others'. Die Mannschaft have an 88% chance of facing Slovakia in the next round, who held England to a drab 0-0 draw to secure their 3rd position and qualified as a result of Germany's victory last night.

The World Champions also have a 12% chance of facing another opponent though, the current worst ranked potential qualifier - Albania, who's qualification depends on neither Group E or Group F supplying a team with 3+ points and a better goal difference than -2.

Surprise package of the tournament so far and unlikely Group D leaders Croatia have the most uncertainty surrounding their potential opponent in the first knockout round of the competition. The Vatreni could face any one of three sides in Lens on Saturday, the most likely of which being the potential 3rd placed qualifier from Group F at 76%.

This is because there only way in which a side from Group F definitely wouldn't qualify is if Hungary beat Portugal, a scenario that is only given a 24% chance of happening. That 24% is split into 12% for the two other outcomes - Croatia facing Slovakia (in the same combination that would see Germany face Albania) and the potential 3rd placed side from Group E.

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