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Manchester United are statistically as likely to be relegated this season as being crowned Premier League champions

Rory O'Callaghan

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Manchester United are statistically as likely to be relegated this season as being crowned Premier League champions

Manchester United are as likely to be relegated this season as they are to being crowned Premier League champions, according to a new prediction based on statistical analysis.

United have made a promising start to the current campaign under new manager Erik ten Hag and have taken 12 points from their opening six games, including wins over Liverpool and Arsenal.

The Red Devils are now six points behind the Gunners - the early pacesetters in the Premier League.

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Meanwhile, Ten Hag's side could move to within two points of defending champions Manchester City if they win away at the Etihad on Sunday.

Despite the encouraging signs, United are unlikely to challenge for the Premier League title this season, according to end-of-season probabilities published by FiveThirtyEight.

United have been given just a one per cent chance of winning the title in Ten Hag's debut season at Old Trafford.

It is the same probability they have been given for finishing in the bottom three.

In comparison, defending champions City have a 66 per cent chance of winning the league for a third consecutive season according to FiveThirtyEight.

United have been given just a one per cent chance of winning the Premier League in Erik ten Hag's debut season (Image: Alamy)
United have been given just a one per cent chance of winning the Premier League in Erik ten Hag's debut season (Image: Alamy)

The calculations are the result of a complex rating and prediction system which draws on a data from ESPN, Opta and the Engsoccerdata GitHub repository.

FiveThirtyEight predict Liverpool are the second most likely team to win the Premier League this season, with a probability of 15 per cent, while current league leaders Arsenal a third on eight per cent.

United, meanwhile, have just a 25 per cent chance of finishing in the top four this season, according to the data.

That makes them the least likely of the 'Big Six' teams and only slightly ahead of Brighton, who have been given a 24 per cent chance of qualifying for the Champions League.

The Red Devils are as equally likely to be relegated, according to predictions website FiveThirtyEight (Image: Alamy)
The Red Devils are as equally likely to be relegated, according to predictions website FiveThirtyEight (Image: Alamy)

While at the other end of the table, Nottingham Forest are the most likely team to be relegated from the Premier League, with a 68 per cent chance of Steve Cooper's side failing to beat the drop.

They are followed by another newly promoted side in Bournemouth, on 49 per cent, with bottom club Leicester deemed to be the third most likely to go down, with a 27 per cent of the Foxes dropping back down into the Championship.

Do you agree with their predictions? Let us know in the comments.

Featured Image Credit: Alamy

Topics: Manchester United, Premier League, Erik Ten Hag, Football

Rory O'Callaghan
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