A football finance expert has explained why a World Cup boycott from one of the "big" South American nations would do "untold damage" to world football and governing body FIFA.
Last week, an official from the German Football Association (DFB) said it is time to consider a boycott of this summer's World Cup as U.S President Donald Trump continues to spark global controversy with his actions.
Trump has reiterated that the United States must acquire Greenland for national security reasons and did not rule out using military force to occupy the area.
He also threatened to impose tariffs on countries that do not “go along” with his plan.
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The ongoing situation has led to calls for a World Cup boycott, with German Football Association official Oke Gottlich telling the Hamburger Morgenpost newspaper: "I really wonder when the time will be to think and talk about this [a boycott] concretely."
He added: "For me, that time has definitely come."
Amid the rising political tensions, Football finance expert Dr. Rob Wilson has calculated the potential cost if any nations or major stars decide to boycott the 2026 World Cup, which will be hosted by the United States, Mexico and Canada.
He also outlined the potential implications of a boycott from Argentina or Brazil.
"It would cause massive damage," he told BettingLounge. "If one of the big South American nations decided they’re boycotting the World Cup, other teams might fall into line behind them, and then you could end up with a continent and its federation stepping away too.
"The South American countries are the biggest players here. Argentina are the defending champions. Brazil are one of the most iconic World Cup nations. If these teams removed themselves from the competition then you are taking a significant hit.
"Let's say the South American countries come together and boycott the competition unilaterally, that's when it gets really messy because you've taken out an entire set of associations and countries."
Wilson suggests the previously mentioned boycott could cost the World Cup around $2 billion.
"Just on the broadcasting income, you're probably into something like $700 million to $1 billion in broadcast revenue lost, and then you have the losses on the marketing side," he continued.
"You can't activate your sponsorship arrangements in those territories. It would even reduce the amount of money that FIFA could then donate to the emerging territories of which there are some big emerging countries in South America.
"What we need to remember too is if there was a boycott you'd reduce the number of matches to be played so you're then getting sunk on delivery costs as well. The reduction in matches would obviously have a city level impact and that would depend on which country would boycott the World Cup. The numbers can get quite ugly quite quickly."
He continued: "Boycotts of this nature would reduce the legitimacy of any competition, including the World Cup. It devalues it on a philosophical level. When the USA or Russia boycotted the Olympics, you didn’t really know if you were competing with the best in the world anymore. That creates a lot of damage, especially if the World Cup is missing some of its big players."
"It would do untold damage for world football," added Wilson.
How much would it cost to move the World Cup to a new host in 2026?
Wilson, who is the Professor of Applied Sport Finance and Head of Executive Education at UCFB, also warned that any attempts to move or cancel the World Cup could potentially bankrupt football’s world governing body, FIFA.
"The cost isn’t the big issue. It’s the contracts, logistics, security arrangements, broadcast infrastructure and all of the legal stuff that would kick off," said Wilson.
"The budget to deliver the World Cup is just under $4 billion. The host cities will be spending more than $250 million per city on fan parks, transportation projects, increasing hotel beds and all manner of things so logistically it is completely immovable at this point.
"We don’t really see forced relocations for events like this. Even when COVID happened, events were delayed and pushed back a year. The cost to forcibly relocate the World Cup to a new host or host countries would be in excess of $7 billion but that’s before considering the incremental costs of compensation, new travel plans and disruption risks.
"Could that bankrupt FIFA and other stakeholders? Potentially because you’ve got all these fans who have already paid to travel. You’ve got broadcasters, sponsors, stadiums, infrastructure being built and other projects, and the loss of revenue for ancillary activity of hotel rooms, restaurants, tourism activity for those who would be visiting for the World Cup.
"Everyone would be wanting to make claims for losses if the World Cup was moved. The whole thing would become the biggest class action in history."
Wilson added: "It’s more likely to end up with a cancellation to then restart in 2030 but I can’t see that happening."
Topics: FIFA World Cup, Argentina, Brazil, FIFA, United States, Donald Trump
Jack Kenmare