Yesterday we saw a long, wet route from Germany to Belgium end with a chaotic final sprint and a tenth Tour de France stage for Marcel Kittel. Stage 3 is set to provide something a little bit different in the form of a punchy uphill finale.
We continue you dance across European borders and spend much of the stage in Luxembourg before finally reaching France. It's much tougher than the previous stage and concludes with a 1.6km climb.
The finish will be hard to control and I'm not expecting lead-out trains as riders haul themselves up to the line.
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With many of the big name sprinters likely to be ruled out by the rise in the road, we're looking at a relatively open market. Peter Sagan was disappointing yesterday which may serve as some extra motivation. He's the bookie's favourite but I expect the climb to be right on his limit.
Thisstage reminds me of April's Amstel Gold Race and I've got a handful of riders in mind.
I'll be massively surprised if Michael Matthews isn't involved tomorrow and I expect this stage would have been circled in his diary for quite some time. He's 5/1 on most sites and I'll definitely be getting involved.
Philippe Gilbert is another who will love this finish. He's best price 9/1 with Paddy Power which looks like huge value to me.Quick-Step have multiple cards to play but this should really be Gilbert's time to shine.
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With two wins earlier this season, Michael Albasini proved he's still a major threat from a reduced bunch sprint. He was third behind Gilbert at Amstel Gold and looks good EW value at 33/1.
Sonny Colbrelli hit the front early on Stage 2 before fading to sixth. He won't be worried by the hillier finish and should be one of the fastest riders at the business end of the race.
It's been nearly two years since the Italians took a victory at the Tour - could it be Sonny to rescue?
If things get messy in the last 20km we could see some riders sneak off the front. If you want to back an upset take a look at Diego Ulissi, Fabio Felline or Oliver Naesen!
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The Verdict
The rolling terrain will be too much for the pure sprinters. I'm backing Colbrelli to take victory with Matthews and Gilbert not far behind.
Words by: @justprocycling
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