Another sprint finish saw yet another victory for Marcel Kittel, notching his tally up to four. Greipel was boxed in the final few metres and could only watch on as his 5/1 odds of winning dwindled away...
With only one catergorised climb on today's stage, it looks as though the sprinters will have their say once again.
The climb to Cote d'Aire-sur-l'Adour isn't too difficult, but it does mark the start of a 55km false flat all the way to the finishing town of Pau.
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The gradients will not be enough to spit many riders out of the back, but it will require a long grind from the sprinters teams to try and catch any potential breakaway out front.
This region of France, near the town of Pau, is renowned for it's heroic breakaway finishes and often sees riders finish upwards of 12 minutes ahead of the peloton.
With Kittel already taking his fourth win of the race and a commanding lead in the green jersey classification, he'll go into today's stage with confidence sky high.
There will be no incentive to chase the break for Quickstep, instead, the mantle will befall the Katusha and Lotto Soudal squads, two teams yet to nab a win with their star sprinters.
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A likely tactic that the other sprint teams may employ will be to place a man in the breakaway, theoretically sparking Quickstep to chase and burn all their matches early.
But this is Quickstep, a team that are notorious for wily riding and leaving it to the last minute; with four wins already, are they really going to both wasting energy for a (relatively meaningless) fifth before Paris?
So that leaves the peloton's opportunists scrambling to get in the breakaway, only the strongest likely to survive on such a flat and open day of racing. Big candidates for the breakaway include local rider, Thomas Boudat.
The young Frenchman rides for second tier team, Direct Energie, and will be encouraged to jump into any breaks for a healthy amount of TV exposure.Boudat also has a strong sprint, finishing 11th in yesterday's bunch sprint.
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If the breakaway do manage to snap the elastic with the peloton and descend upon Pau with enough time, he might just take the win in a reduced gallop for the line. He can be found at long odds of 125/1 with Paddy Power for the stage win.
Other breakaway candidates include Boudat's teammate, Sylvain Chavanel. The veteran rider is a master of the long breakaways and has worn the yellow jersey of the Tour de France numerous times as a result of his exploits.
This is likely to be his final Tour and he will be looking to go out in some style. He can be found at 200/1 with Paddy Power for the stage win.
Oliver Naesen, Arthur Vichot, Guillaume Van Keirsbulck and Frederik Backaert are four other strongmen that have the power to stay away on such a flat, open route. They can be found at odds of 200/1, 400/1, 250/1, 250/1 respectively, all with Paddy Power.
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Such long odds for these riders do come at a price, they'll need to make it into the day's breakaway and potentially fight tooth and nail to hold off a rampaging peloton.
A more likely, but far less interesting (and profitable), outcome for today will be an inevitable bunch sprint into Pau.
The road coming into Pau and to the finish line isn't exactly easy and the peloton will have to face no fewer than four roundabouts as they make their way to the flamme rouge.
A slight kink with 500m to go will also throw the sprint into disarray, making positioning crucial and a leadout man in front vital. Marcel Kittel is the clear favourite with four wins already to his name, a fifth essentially securing the green jersey until Paris.
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He can be found at 8/13 with Paddy Power. John Degenkolb and Dylan Groenwegen proved the fastest of the rest yesterday and could carry some fast form into Pau, they can be found at 14/1 and 10/1, both with Paddy Power.
Another potential sprint candidate is the outspoken Aussie, Michael Matthews. So far he's been chasing intermediate sprint points with the hope of pulling on the green jersey.
After Kittel's fourth win today, that classification is almost sewn up and I have doubts that Matthews will bother chasing any more points.He'll now focus all his attention on a stage win, today's route suiting him a little more than the other sprinters.
The false flat will come easily to Matthews, a strong climber, he should be able to grind up it without expending too much energy. The kink with 500m to go may also prove his bread and butter, an explosive sprinter, all he needs to do is jump first and he may just hold off all the others to the finish line.
The Aussie can be found at long odds of 40/1 with Paddy Power and is worth an E/W bet...
The Verdict
Breakaway vs mass bunch finish is the real question today; one brings with it a lot more risk and reward, the other an odds on guarantee that Kittel will claim his fifth stage win... Anyhow, I'll be going for a few breakaway victories today, Boudat at 125/1 and Vichot at 400/1.
In the likelihood of a bunch sprint, I'll be staying away from Kittel (his luck has got to run out sometime, right?) and making the rash decision to put all my eggs in the Michael Matthews basket, an E/W bet at 40/1.
Some H2H listings have also caught my eye (all with Paddy Power)
Thomas Boudat (Win) vs Pieter Vanspeybrouck - 8/11
Sonny Colbrelli (Win) vs Davide Cimolai - 8/13
Alexander Kristoff (Win) vs Nacer Bouhanni - 4/7
Words By: Inside The Peloton
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