Another winning day for the betting preview, Roglic bringing home our biggest win yet at a massive 40/1. Today's stage sees the riders traverse the final mountain stage of this year's Tour de France, one final chance for the GC contenders to take the fight to Chris Froome's yellow jersey...
A landmark day on the Tour de France, the finish culminating on the infamous Col d'Iozard for the first time in the race's 114 year history.
The 180km test is essentially just one long build up to the final showdown on the Iozard. A few climbs litter the route, but all the action will be inevitably condensed into the final 14.1km.
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The first climb of the day comes at the 60th kilometre and should see a few of the sprinters slowly start to from the grupetto. An intermediate sprint would have originally provided a lot of teams with the incentive to race, but with Kittel now out of the Tour and Matthews over 100 points in the lead from Andre Greipel, I doubt anyone will want to waste vital energy.
With around 80km left to race, the riders will face down the notorious Col de Vars, a Cat 1 ascent that should start to make some early selections. The mountain climbs for 9.3km at an average of 7.5%, it's steepest ramps coming halfway through the grueling pass.
2km of 10% gradients will start to make an elite selection out front, the GC contenders and spirited opportunists the only riders able to hang on. It's then a long twisting descent to the base of the Iozard, a section of road likely to see some action. With Romain Bardet sitting 27 seconds down on yellow, this final descent may just prove to be his final chance to attack Chris Froome.
The Col d'Iozard starts gradually, allowing the riders to assume an early rhythm. However, as the riders pass the 7th kilometre, gradients start to become hellish. Percentages don't go below 7.5% and averages touch 10% for the final few kilometres; this should catalyse one incredible finish to the 2017 Tour de France.
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Now well into the third week of this race, every single rider will be feeling the fatigue, especially those who came to the Tour off the back of a packed racing programme. A few riders turned up to this race after a relatively incognito start to the season; both Chris Froome and Rigoberto Uran arriving in France without a 2017 win to their name.
The two of them are undoubtedly the freshest riders in the race, a real benefit for these long Alpine tests. Riders like Fabio Aru, Mikel Landa and Dan Martin are all starting to feel the fatigue of a season full of racing in their legs; their best days are behind them and they'll be looking at damage limitation, rather than attacks, tomorrow.
Froome has won at least one stage in each of his three Tour de France wins; with no win to boast thus far, he only realistically has two more chances to deliver and exert his dominance on the race. The ITT in Marseille suits him but a rider like Froome will undoubtedly want to stamp his authority on the infamously high peak of the Col d'Iozard.
Sky will be eager to light up the final climb and with very few testing ascents before the Iozard, they should come to the base of the mountain with a strong compliment of riders. Nieve faltered today and may prove a hindrance to Froome tomorrow, nevertheless, he'll still have Kwiatkowski and Landa to lean on, the latter a perfect ally on the steepest ramps of the Iozard.
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Froome can be found at 3/1 with Betfair for the stage win and is certainly worth an E/W punt.
Rigoberto Uran is a rider that has played a perfect tactical game so far in this race, sticking to Chris Froome's wheel throughout the race. The Colombian has ridden into this race and has really come into his own over the final few days, easily chasing down attacks on the grueling Galibier.
With only 27 seconds to make up on the yellow jersey, Uran now finds himself in the position of a lifetime and will unlikely get this opportunity again. It's now or never for the Colombian and he'll be looking to use every inch of road on the Iozard to punish Froome. He can be found at 6/1 with William Hill for the stage win.
As tomorrow's stage is almost certain to end in one final GC showdown, the breakaway stand little to no chance in making it to the finish. Added to that the relatively tame build up to the final climb, escapees will struggle to take out big time gaps on the bunch. With Primoz Roglic taking a grand haul of KOM points today, Warren Barguil may start to get slightly nervy of the Slovenian's position and launch some defensive attacks tomorrow.
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If we do get a polka dot showdown on the Iozard tomorrow, both riders are strong bets for the stage win at the summit. Roglic can be found at 33/1 with PaddyPower and Barguil at 12/1 with BetWay, both for the stage win.
The only other rider who could realistically crack Froome or Uran will be the home nation's hero, Romain Bardet. He already has a stage win to his name and has clearly stamped his name all over the French mountains this week. His team is strong and he'll once again be looking to use them to knock the confidence of his other GC competitors.
The Frenchman can be found at 5/1 with PaddyPower for the stage win and is certainly worth an E/W punt.
The final scramble up the Iozard gives the GC contenders one final chance to attack Chris Froome; none of them will take time from him in the ITT, it's now or never and, as a result, attacks will inevitably fly...
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The Verdict
Team Sky will set a monstorous pace throughout the day and will hit the Col d'Iozard at pace. Kwiatkowski and Landa will keep the pace high and prevent any attacks from launching, keeping Froome fresh for the finale. In the final few kilometres, we should finally see the yellow jersey stamp his authority on this race, riding to an impressive stage win.
I'll be on Froome at 3/1 E/W for the stage win. Uran's odds are too good to pass up on and should also be considered at 6/1, an E/W bet the most likely to bring home the profit.
No bets on any of the other GC riders, this stage should come down to a toe to toe battle between the top two on GC.
For the slim possibility that a breakaway makes it to the finish, I'll be on Gianluca Brambilla at 300/1 with Bet365 for the stage win.
Some H2H bets look particularly interesting (all with PaddyPower):
Primoz Roglic (Win) vs Darwin Atapuma - 1/2
Chris Froome (Win) vs Romain Bardet - 8/13
Simon Yates (Win) vs Louis Meintjes - 5/2
Words By: Inside The Peloton
https://www.insidethepelotonblog.org/
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