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ODDSbible Cycling: Tour De France 2017 Outright Betting Preview

ODDSbible Cycling: Tour De France 2017 Outright Betting Preview

It looks like Froome's to lose this year...

Anonymous

Anonymous

July rolls round once again and brings with it the world's largest annual sporting event, Le Tour de France. Can Chris Froome claim a fourth title, or will an altered route open the door to a surprise usurper of the Britain's crown?

The pinnacle of the pro cycling calendar begins this coming Saturday, the 1st of July, and runs right up until the end of the month on July the 28th. The combination of fast paced action and eclectic grandeur make this race the most well known cycling event on the planet, adding that to it's 104 year history and rich tales of sporting heroes and villains...

The 2017 route around France has changed significantly since its past few predecessors and arguably works against the three time British winner, Chris Froome. A reduced amount of climbing and time trialing kilometres should throw the race wide open right until the final week, catalysing one of the most exciting grand tours for a decade.

With so much to consider, we've tasked Inside The Peloton with coming up with the goods.

The Course

21 stages over 23 days across the winding back lanes and arrow straight motorways of France, Le Tour takes in sights from across the country, a mix of traditional wheat fields and WW1 memorials to breathtaking mountain passes.

The race will start in Dusseldorf with a 14km time trial that should shuffle the general classification early on. The first mountaintop finish comes as early as stage five, the race to Planche des Belles Filles will inevitably highlight those riders eager to fight it out for the yellow jersey.

A duo of mountain stages before the first rest day will complete the first week of racing and should give an early picture of which riders are feeling the form, and which are crumbling already.

The second week will see the riders head to the Pyrenees and straight into breakaway country. The fight for the polka dot jersey will surely pick up here and the short, sharp mountainous passes should catalyse a dogged battle for the yellow jersey.

After the second rest day, the riders will head to the Alps to climb the most infamous ascents in this part of the world. The highest points of this year's race will feature in the third week, riders looking likely to be crippled by altitude sickness as they head to the Col d'Izoard.

One final time trial in Marseille before the ceremonial lap round the streets of Paris will complete the race and ultimately crown the 2017 champion.

Contenders for Yellow

The leader of the overall classification (GC) wears the yellow jersey. The leader is determined by the rider who has completed the course in the cumulative fastest time over the 21 days of racing.

With such an altered route for this year's edition of the race, the door has been opened to the aggressive opportunists, those riders willing to risk everything to grasp crucial handfuls of seconds.

Chris Froome once again comes to this race as the big favourite, three wins in the past four years giving him the superior credentials for the 2017 edition. He will struggle however, his recent form in the Criterium du Dauphine was nothing to shout home about and he demonstrated fatal weaknesses in the short time trial, effectively losing him the race and keeping him off the podium entirely.

But this is a three time Tour de France winner, Froome knows exactly where his form needs to be for the month of July and he will no doubt have plans set in place to peak at the crucial moment. As the favourite to take yellow, he can be found at odds of 6/5 with Bet365.

His former teammate, Richie Porte, will prove his biggest competitor. The winner of both the Tour down under and Tour of Romandie in 2017, the Aussie is coming to the Tour on an imperious level of form. Provided he can mitigate the bad luck that always seems to enthrall him in the first week, we could potentially see one of the closest Tour de France battles in a generation; Porte versus Froome, toe to toe, wheel to wheel...

Porte's team of BMC is a little understaffed compared to that of Froome's and he may just suffer from a lack of support, especially when the race reaches the mountains. With no teammates to really fall back on, the Aussie can be found at further odds of 7/4 with Bet365.

Regular podium finisher and Colombian prodigal son, Nairo Quintana, comes to the Tour off the back of a tough Giro D'Italia, losing out on the pink jersey by 31 seconds to Tom Dumoulin. The diminutive climber began his 2017 campaign with the ambition of a Giro-Tour double; having already failed at the first hurdle, will he be able to re-gather his strength and compete on the grandest of levels?

A lack of summit finishes will cripple Quintana's chances this year, his explosive attacks up steep gradients usually the mechanism to take time on his rivals. Instead, he'll have to resort to long and dangerous breakaways, relying on his Movistar team to do the majority of the legwork. With the Giro already in his legs, Quintana comes to the Tour as a slight outsider and can be found as far as 7/1 with Ladbrokes.

With such a different route compared to previous years, this is the first edition in many years that could possibly be taken by a complete outsider. A lot of riders come to this race having never reached a grand tour podium, however, with a course that promotes aggressive racing and dogged GC battles, they may just surprise everyone and top the podium come Paris...

One of these riders is Dan Martin, a rider more accustomed to one day classic racing rather than three week long grand tours. He will bring his strong racing form and attacking mind to this race, combining them into one potent mix that may just bring him yellow tinted glory.

He stood atop the podium in the recent Criterium du Dauphine, the biggest precursor for the upcoming Grande Boucle; could he replicate this result at the Tour? A true dark horse, he can be found as far as 110/1 with Betfair and is certainly worthy of an E/W bet.

Two further outsiders for this year's victory are Mikel Landa and Ion Izagirre. The former will be working alongside Chris Froome, a vital part of his mountain pace train. However, the Basque rider is wily and will look for any opportunity to serve his own ambitions. At the recent Giro D'Italia he took the king of the mountains competition as well as a stage win, highlighting his imperious form.

Whether through outright betrayal, or an unfortunate crash for Froome, Landa may just find himself leading Team Sky. If this situation does arise, he has the class and panache in abundance to pull off the win; his climbing is impeccable and a recent second place in the Spanish National ITT championships indicate he can now compete against the clock.

Fancy a dramatic Tour de France with stories of betrayal and heartache a plenty? Mikel Landa is the man for the job at odds of 150/1 with Paddy Power.

Despite a relatively weak Tour de Suisse, Ion Izagirre comes to the Tour with GC ambitions still at the forefront of his mind. He's a strong time trialist and resilient in the mountains, he may not possess the explosive attacks of Quintana or Froome, but given some strong form and good luck, he may just be able to ride all others off his wheel. 200/1 with William Hill E/W are odds worth taking for one of the strongest GC riders in this race.

The Battle for the Podium

As Froome, Porte and Quintana battle for the most likely three spots on the podium, a large swathe of riders lie just waiting to swoop in and capitalise on one bad day, claiming a prestigious spot on the Tour de France podium.

No value lies with the top three riders and with such a high chance of an unpredictable Tour de France, it only makes sense to plump for a few outsiders. Alejandro Valverde is the man on form in 2017, despite his 37 years of age. The route suits him down to a tee and this may just be his best chance to take a win in the French race.

The Spaniard can be found at 25/1 with Bet365 for the overall win and 11/4 with 888Sport for a Top 3 finish.

Two riders aforementioned also provide great odds for a Top 3 finish. The 2017 Tour de France is the best opportunity for Dan Martin to claim a podium spot, at 16/1 with 888Sport, this is a bet worth taking...

Given a long and arduous race, look no further than Ion Izagirre, a resilient sentinel of the Alpine passes. A strong final time trial could make or break the race and is the biggest opportunity for this Spanish rider to break onto the podium. He can be found at 30/1 with 888Sport for a Top 3 finish.

Speed is Green

The leader of the points classification wears the green jersey. Points are accumulated at each stage finish and one intermediate sprint point placed somewhere throughout each stage. Different stages carry different amounts of points, the flatter days yielding the most amount and ensuring that it is usually a sprinter that claims green come Paris.

Peter Sagan heads the sprinting field at this year's Tour de France, eager to take his fifth consecutive victory in the points classification. He is the clear favourite being a rider that can take points on all manner of stages, from the flat bunch sprints to tough medium mountains stages. He can be found at 4/7 with Paddy Power to take green.

Once again, he'll face fierce opposition from the peloton's top sprinters; but with Mark Cavendish just recently recovered from gladular fever, and Andre Greipel starting to feel the implications of old age, who will challenge Sagan for Green?

Marcel Kittel will be his biggest rival for the jersey, one of the strongest sprinters in today's peloton, the German would comfortably beat Sagan in nine out of ten head on sprints. This year's route also favours the German, ten flat sprint stages that he could theoretically stamp all over.

As long as he can score enough points at the stage finishes, to mitigate Sagan's attempts at claiming the intermediate sprints, Kittel could well walk away with the green jersey. He can be found at odds of 7/2 with Paddy Power to do so.

One rider similar to Sagan in terms of sprinting style and aggressive mentality is Michael Matthews. The two are often found going toe to toe during the Spring classics, uphill sprints their favoured type of race finishes. The Aussie rider has been training at altitude for the majority of the Spring, honing his climbing form for the Tour de France.

He took his first Tour stage win in 2016 and finished third in the points competition, showing great promise for future editions. This year features a few more short uphill finishes that just scream Matthews; as a result, he is a great outsider to take green and can be found at 16/1 with Paddy Power.

A Note on White

The lead rider under the age of 25 wears the white jersey. This competition follows the same principles of the overall classification but only riders under 25 are eligible to compete.

The fight for the white jersey looks set to be a three way battle between a trio of emerging stage racing talents. Simon Yates comes to the Tour as the main favourite for the white jersey and will be looking to defend the title of his twin brother from last year's race. The British rider can be found at 8/13 with 32Red.

Louis Meintjes finished 8th last year and lost out on white to Romain Bardet. This year, Bardet is too old to be eligable for the competition, leaving Meintjes one of the most likely candidates to succeed him. He can be found at 11/4 with 32Red.

Lastly is Emanuel Buchmann, a young German rider that recently won the youth classification at the Criterium du Dauphine, a race often coined, 'The Mini Tour de France'. Given some freedom by his Bora team and he could potentially ride into a top 10 position overall and with it, claim white. He can be found at 8/1 with 32Red.

Climbing for Spots

The leader of the King of the Mountain's classification wear the polka dot jersey. Points are taken at the top of each catergorised mountain pass, a different amount depending on the difficulty of the ascent.

Two time winner of this classification, Rafal Majka, comes to the Tour de France as the main favourite to take spotted honours once again. However, the Pole has expressed his desire to aim for yellow, could we see him in a different colour come the finale in Paris?

Given his credentials in this competition, and his relative lack of experience in three week GC racing, Majka will more than likely find himself battling for KOM points come the third week of this race. He is one of the strongest riders in the high mountains and relishes long, aggressive breakaways; he can be found at 3/1 with 888Sport to take spots.

Young Frenchman, Lilian Calmejane, may ride for a pro continental level team, but he already has a grand tour stage win to his name and, aside from Valverde, has had the strongest 2017 of any rider this season. He took out the KOM classification in the early season Paris Nice race, looking more than comfortable joining the tough mountainous breakaways.

The youngster finds himself at long odds for the polka dots, 60/1 with 888Sport, a great choice for an E/W bet.

It's a Team Sport after all

The team classification is often overlooked by many riders, but since it carries a very similar prize money to that of the prestigious yellow, quite a few teams do come to the race with this classification at the forefront of their minds.

The cumulative time of a team's top three riders overall are added together to give an overall time. By the final stage in Paris, the team with the lowest cumulative time takes the team classification.

The Movistar team look to dominate this classification once again, big hitters in Valverde and Quintana likely to feature within the top ten. A top 20 placing from any other rider in their team would surely confirm a third consecutive victory; they can be found at 5/4 with 32Red.

AG2R won this competition back in 2014, back when the team boasted rich depth in climbing quality. Once again, they bring a strong compliment of climbers to the Tour, looking like Movistar's biggest rivals for this competition.

Bardet, Latour and Frank will be their three key riders, all three strong enough to compete with the other GC contenders. The French team can be found at much longer odds than Movistar, 14/1 with 888Sport.

Other bets to consider...

The number of different yellow jersey wearers. The average is around 3-4 but recent, more aggressive, grand tours such as the 2016 Vuelta and 2017 Giro have seen as many as 6 different riders wear the leaders jersey. At 25/1 with Paddy Power, this is certainly a risky bet worth considering.

Only one time in the history of the Tour de France have more than 170.5 riders finished the race, and that was last year... Despite this, Paddy Power are still offering 5/6 on under 170.5 riders finishing, a no-brainer given the 103 year long record only broken last year.

BetsSelectionSelection
Overall Victory
Chris Froome - 6/5Daniel Martin - 110/1
Top 3 Finish
Alejandro Valverde - 11/4Ion Izagirre - 30/1
White Jersey WinnerSimon Yates - 8/13Emanuel Buchmann - 8/1
Green Jersey WinnerPeter Sagan - 4/7Michael Matthews - 16/1
KOM Jersey WinnerRafal Majka - 3/1Lilian Calmejane - 60/1
Team Classification WinnerMovistar - 5/4AG2R - 14/1
Number of Yellow JerseysSix - 25/1
Number of FinishersUnder 170.5 - 5/6
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