After landing two more winning tips, 11/1 and 12/1, we now head to the Alps searching for some more big betting gains. Will Chris Froome be able to hang onto yellow as the rest of the GC send a barrage of attacks?
Today is the queen stage of this year's Tour de France, three infamous Alpine climb making the headlines. The riders will begin climbing early on the Cat 2 ascent of the Col d'Orson; it's ramps aren't too testing and will rather see a drawn out battle between the sprinting teams trying to drop each other before the early intermediate sprint.
Once the dust has settled and the chaos of the stage start calmed down, the riders will be at the foot of the Col de la Croix de Fer and facing down a behemoth of the French Alps. The ascent climbs for 24km and starts off steep, prompting a flurry of early attacks.
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Small descents midway up the climb will provide some brief respite, but the mammoth kilometres will inevitably start to shatter the GC group out front. A winding descent to the final two climbs could potentially prove even more pivotal than the preceding ascent.
AG2R have proven again and again in this race that they are eager to attack the downhills; I'd be a fool to say they won't try again today. If they can split the peloton once more and isolate Froome, they could potentially put Bardet into a winning position; one killer attack on the final climb and Froome will be left mourning the loss of his yellow jersey.
At the foot of the Col de la Croix de Fer, the riders will instantly face down the gates of hell, the infamous Telegraphe Galibier duo. On it's own, the Telegraphe is a notoriously difficult climb and has dashed the yellow jersey dreams of many riders across several generations. When coupled with the hellishly long Galibier climb, the pair just becomes a torture exercise for the riders.
It simply impossible to attack both climbs, no rider could sustain a strong pace up the 35km trek to the 2600m summit of the Galibier. Attacks will have to be launched wisely and riders will have to be carfeul to gauge their any levels; it's a long way to the top...if you want to rock and roll.
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A relatively simple 28km descent then faces the riders after the summit; if the GC contenders summit the climb together, they'll more than likely be in store for a reduced bunch finish. The final 500m of the stage rise slightly and should create a thrilling sprint finish.
Chris Froome goes into today's mountainous day shaken, especially after the exploits of AG2R on Sunday. With three riders all within 29 seconds of his yellow jersey, the Brit is undoubtedly tetchy and eager to put a little more daylight between him and the rest.
The finish echoes the final kilometres of stage 8 of the 2016 Tour de France, a long downhill to Bagneres-du-Luchon where Chris Froome attacked over the final climb and rocketed down the descent. He could try a similar tactic today and will be hoping that his Sky team can keep him fresh until the Galibier, from there, it's all up to him...
Froome can be found at 9/1 with SkyBet for the stage win, an E/W bet worth the punt.
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Another GC contender looking to claim a stage win today will be Frenchman Romain Bardet. He has a team willing to risk life and limb on the descents and the will of a home crowd; two perfect attributes for today's stage. He needs to start taking time, he simply cannot wait until the final ITT in Marseilles.
Bardet can be found at 8/1 with LadBrokes for the stage win.
Two riders eager to mount some long range attacks on the Croix de Fer or Telegraphe are KOM leader, Warren Barguil, and El Pistolero himself, Alberto Contador. Barguil is on imperious form and looks set to pull on the polka dots come the final day in Paris; however, he'll still need to exert his dominance tomorrow and romp over all the summits in first position, he cannot afford to let Thomas de Gendt get a sniff of the spots...
The young Frenchman is a strong sprinter and was only narrowly beaten by Uran on stage nine. If he comes to tomorrow's finish in a reduced breakaway, or even GC group, he'll be the big danger. Barguil can be found at 11/2 with Bet365 for the stage win and is worth an E/W bet.
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Contador, on the other hand, will be out to gain time tomorrow. Currently sitting in eleventh overall, the two time Tour champion is in unfamiliar territory and is desperate to climb his way into the top five on GC. A stage win along the way would be a magical moment for the veteran and he can be found at 10/1 with Paddy Power to do so.
Aside from the big GC contenders, a number of possible escapees could romp home to the stage win tomorrow. If the lead riders assume a constant rhythm on the earlier climbs, the break may just be able to build an unassailable lead and go onto contend the stage win.
Big candidates for tomorrow's breakaway include, Primoz Roglic (40/1 Betfred), Thibaut Pinot (33/1) SkyBet, Damiano Caruso (40/1 Bet365), Thomas de Gendt (66/1 SkyBet) and Emmanuel Buchmann (125/1 Ladbrokes).
The Verdict
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Only two mountain stages remain on this Tour de France, the chances to attack Chris Froome are slowly running out and, as a result, he should face a barrage tomorrow. The top four on GC will face a fierce battle to who can pull on yellow come the end of the day, one of them possibly even taking stage honours.
With such a ferocious pace, the break will find it difficult to get going and may just be swallowed up before the final climb. I'll be on Alberto Contador to rip the race apart and take a brilliant solo stage win at 10/1. I'll also be going E/W on the KOM king, Warren Barguil at 11/2.
Riders to cover for the breakaway will be Roglic (40/1) and Buchmann (125/1), but also a small punt on Nicolas Roche to bring in some Irish good luck, 150/1 for the win.
Words By: Inside The Peloton
https://www.insidethepelotonblog.org/
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