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Here's What We Need To Happen To Avoid Portugal In The Last 16

Here's What We Need To Happen To Avoid Portugal In The Last 16

Who are we more likely to get?

Joshua Jones

Joshua Jones

Less than 48 hours after a drab and disappointing 0-0 draw with Slovakia saw England through to the last 16 as the 2nd placed side in Group B, we are set to find out just who our opponent is going to be from Group F. This is a simultaneously exciting and worrying time for England fans, as the prospect of yet another tournament exit to Portugal on penalties looms ever closer.

Quite thankfully then, is the fact that there's a very slim chance Portugal will actually finish 2nd in the group - 10.9% to be precise. It would only happen if both themselves and Iceland pick up victories, and Cristiano and co couldn't win by a higher margin than their Nordic counterparts.

The most likely side to finish second then, from the 9 possible outcomes of Group F, is actually current leaders Hungary - who have a 40% chance of being the side England face in the first knock-out stages, despite there being only two outcomes in which they would do so. This is due to the likelihood of Iceland not beating Austria and Portugal earning a victory over themselves.

Second favourites to face England in the last 16 are Iceland themselves, who are given a 38% chance of progressing via that method. To guarantee 2nd all they have to do is avoid defeat against Austria and hope Portugal don't beat Hungary. If Portugal and Iceland both win, as stated above, the group will go to goal difference to decide who finishes top and qualifies 2nd; whilst a Portugal win and an Iceland draw would see them through in 3rd and send Hungary through in 2nd.

England will only have to face Austria (18.3% chance) then, if Der Buschen pick up a victory over the Icelandics and Portugal fail to win. If Portugal do win, Austria will qualify 3rd despite having the same points total as Hungary (due to their 2-0 loss in the opening game).

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