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Who Will Top Neymar's £198 Million Transfer Fee? The Economics Behind The Future Of Record-Breaking Signings

Who Will Top Neymar's £198 Million Transfer Fee? The Economics Behind The Future Of Record-Breaking Signings

An interesting look at the past, present and future of transfers.

Anonymous

Anonymous

On August 4th 2017, former Barcelona star Neymar completed a record-breaking transfer to the French capital, as Paris Saint-Germain activated the Brazilians €222 million release clause. The mouthwatering wages and the desire to escape from Lionel Messi's shadow resulted in Neymar wishing to dismantle arguably one of the best attacking trios in football history that scored 364 goals in 450 games between them.

As the competition between the financial powerhouses exponentially increases, can transfer fees become even more extortionate?

Neymar
Neymar

Image: PA

The progression of transfer fee records.

Since the introduction of the Premier League and Champions League in 1992, football fans have witnessed ludicrous investment being pumped into their beloved sport.

In 1996 Ronaldo switched from PSV Eidenhoven to Barcelona in a world-record deal worth £13.2 million. Just two years later, a £21.5 million agreement saw Denilson move from Sao Paulo to Real Betis in 1998. This fee was 63% greater than the world-record fee just 48 months before.

At the turn of the 21st century, the expenditure of football rocketed - Zinedine Zidane moved from Juventus to Real Madrid for a record fee of £46million. In just three years, the world-record fee for a footballer had doubled.

This record notably stood for eight years, until Kaka joined Real Madrid from AC Milan for £56 million in 2009. Ironically this record was broken again in the same transfer window, as Cristiano Ronaldo also moved to the La Liga giants for £80 million. In 2013 Gareth Bale became the third world-record transfer in a row to venture to Madrid, trumping Cristiano's value by £6 million.

Last summer, Paul Pogba returned to the club that he left for free - for £89 million. Many thought that this was a nonsensical fee to pay for any footballer and that it represented the end of record-breaking fees for a very long time. However PSG proved neutrals wrong by remunerating £198 million for Neymar Jr - a preposterous 123% increase from the 'unmatchable' sum payed by Manchester United for Paul Pogba just 12 months before.

Pogba
Pogba

Image: PA

The future of transfer fees in football.

After the Neymar gossip subsides, where could the money behind football possibly take us next, and which players will break Neymar's record?

According to the algorithm by the CIES Football Observatory, there are no other players who would currently be worth more than Neymar's £198 million sum. Nevertheless, there are ample players below Neymar on the list who have enough years left in their career to surpass the current world-record fee in the future, due to a combination of their increasing skill and football's rising investment.

For example, the second most valuable player on the market (after Neymar) is Dele Alli of Tottenham Hotspur, avowedly worth £155.1 million at the moment. The Englishman is followed by his international and club teammate Harry Kane, valued at £153.6 million. Other young players worth analogous fees include Paul Pogba, Paulo Dybala and Romelu Lukaku.

You can view the full list of the world's most valuable players here.

Harry Kane Dele Alli
Harry Kane Dele Alli

Image: PA

How much will these superstars in the making actually be worth in their prime?

This is a question which is almost impossible to predict, because the history of the progression in world-record fees is wildly inconsistent. For example, the world-record fee increased by 55% in just four years, between 2009 and 2013. Although in the next three years the world-record fee would only increase by a mere 3.5%. However just one year after this, it would rise by a staggering 123%. If you continued this pattern, you would see that there is usually an astounding record-breaking fee followed by a long period of time where this record is not broken.

If this sequence were to continue, I would expect Neymar's fee to not be beaten until at least 2020 - as the distinctive price of Neymar was arguably an exception to the mundane values of football players.

Under the financial rules of La Liga, every player contract must have a release clause. At the time of writing Neymar's contract, Barcelona would have inserted a release clause which they believe would never be met - ensuring that the player stays with the Catalan giants.

However Barcelona did not account for the meteoric growth of investment in football, which resulted in PSG becoming capable of affording the €222 million release clause. Unless a clause is present, which could result in abnormal circumstances such as the Neymar affair, I would not expect any club to bid more than £198 million for a player before 2020 when more clubs will be able to afford greater fees.

The only players with a release clause similar to Neymar are Lionel Messi, Cristiano Ronaldo and Luis Suarez. Considering the age of these players and their current situations at their club, it is very unlikely that any club would activate their release clauses.

Suarez
Suarez

Image: PA

A realistic prediction is that a sum of an estimated £250 million could be reached for two young English players in the near future - Dele Alli and Harry Kane. A combination of age, nation, talent, and market inflation will likely see these two players become the most expensive footballers in the future.

Kylian Mbappé is another upcoming prospect who could break the bank of a superclub in the future. Perhaps his next move will not reach the £200 million mark - but if he were to move to a superior club and hit the ground running, the Frenchman could follow a similar career path to Neymar where he makes a second mega-money transfer to a different superclub once he is a more established player. Who do you think will be the next £200 million player?

Words by Matthew Jones - @MatthewJ_Joness

Featured Image Credit:

Topics: Transfers, Neymar, Ronaldo