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Model Proves Premier League Would Still Finish Exactly The Same Way

Model Proves Premier League Would Still Finish Exactly The Same Way

Liverpool need just two wins to take the Premier League title but it's not good news for Norwich City, Aston Villa and Bournemouth.

Ryan Sidle

Ryan Sidle

Liverpool's Premier League title is a forgone conclusion as long as the league can restart after its Covid-19 enforced postponement but the bottom three will still go down, according to one algorithm.

On Thursday the FA agreed to delay the domestic season till at least the end of April, meaning we won't get any football until May.

The governing body also decided to lift the deadline for the end of the season, which is usually the beginning of June, whilst UEFA has extended the domestic season until the end of June.

However there's still no guarantee the season will be completed. Should the season be cancelled then there is one way the season could be sorted, with an interesting algorithm.

As per the Times, a model which looks at strength of opponent left for each team works out how the league will finish, and is similar to the Elo calculation that works out FIFA rankings, the bottom three of Norwich City, Aston Villa and Bournemouth will stay the same.

How the Premier League table will finish, according to maths. Image: PA Images
How the Premier League table will finish, according to maths. Image: PA Images

If the Guyon model is correct then Jurgen Klopp's team will lose one more time this season and finish with 106 points.

That means that they'll easily win the league, as is expected with them needing just six more points, and break Manchester City's record of 100 points in a season.

Pep Guardiola's side will easily finish runners up with Leicester City and Chelsea joining them in the top four and local rivals Manchester United missing out by three points.

Even with the games in hand that City, Sheffield United, Arsenal and Villa hold over the rest of the league nothing is set to change in the current standings.

That means Wolves and Sheffield United would finish in the remaining European places and Spurs could miss out, depending what happens with City's potential ban from UEFA competitions.

The system to predict how the table might work out takes into account strength of opposition, whether the games are played home or away and previous results in the league from the rest of the 2019/20 season.

These are certainly uncertain times and no one knows how or when the season might finish, but the Guyon model is as good as any other system to work it all out if there's no other way.

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