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Champions League Most Likely Winners Have Been Decided

Ryan Sidle

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Champions League Most Likely Winners Have Been Decided

Manchester City are the most likely team left in the Champions League to win the competition, with holders Bayern Munich second on the list.


Pep Guardiola's side made it through to the quarter finals of this season's tournament on Tuesday night, with Kevin de Bruyne's world class goal the highlight of an easy victory over Borussia Monchengladbach.

City are desperate to add European success to their ever growing list of domestic honours, with a fifth Premier League title in nine years sure to come later this season.

In the past three seasons the quarter finals is where Guardiola's side have come unstuck, with last season's failure against Lyon perhaps the most surprising.

However, according to stats gurus FiveThirtyEight, the English league leaders have a 55% chance of making the final and a 37% chance of winning the final, making them favourites.

Likely Champions League winners. Image: FiveThirtyEight
Likely Champions League winners. Image: FiveThirtyEight

In simple terms, the ranking is based on how many goals the team is expected to score, based on their previous performances, vs how many goals they're expected to concede.

That has made City more than twice as likely to win the competition than holders Bayern, which is quite incredible at this point in the competition.

Interestingly, ahead of the last 16, Barcelona were third favourites to win the tournament according to the system, with a 13% chance to Bayern's 16 and City's 31.

City celebrate against Monchengladbach. Image: PA Images
City celebrate against Monchengladbach. Image: PA Images

The chances of each team could change when the draw for the quarter finals and semi finals take place on Friday.

Should City face Chelsea, for example, then it's likely that Thomas Tuchel's side would drop down in the rankings, considering they're facing the favourites.

In our simulation, Guardiola's side will actually face Porto, which might continue the suggestion that they get easy draws, whilst the Blues will face Borussia Dortmund.

The winners of those two games would play each other in the semi final, whilst the other semi is between the winners of Liverpool vs Bayern Munich and Real Madrid vs PSG.


Do you think City can finally overcome their Champions League problems to win the title for the first time?

Featured Image Credit: PA

Topics: Manchester City, Liverpool, Chelsea, Football, PSG, porto, Borussia Dortmund, Champions League, Bayern Munich, Real Madrid

Ryan Sidle
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