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An Expected Goals Per Shot Table Of Every Striker In Europe Reveals Some Surprising Results
A table containing the xG metrics of strikers in the top five European leagues has emerged based on this season's form.
The below findings are calculated from shot volume, shot quality (xG per shot) and over/under-performance of xG from those who have played over 540 minutes in the 2019/20 campaign.
A number of players have notably overshot their expected goals per game, including Chelsea's in-form striker Tammy Abraham, who has netted 11 times under Frank Lampard this season.
Timo Werner from RB Leipzig is also performing admirably, while Wissam Ben Yedder (Monaco), Robert Lewandowski (Bayern Munich), Gerard Moreno (Villarreal) and Luis Suarez (Barcelona) have also overshot their xG.
Notable mentions go out to Karim Benzema (Real Madrid) and Sergio Aguero (Manchester City), who have also exceeded their expected goals per game.
And, as you can see from the table, Cristiano Ronaldo has a lot of shots and not many expected goals per shot.
In terms of those who have failed to score as much as their cut-above shot quality suggests, Islam Slimani from Monaco has struggled, while Luuk de Jong (Sevilla) and Roberto Firmino (Liverpool) also feature.
Here is a thread from Twitter user @insightMrkt explaining the results:
Which players fare the best in these metrics, and have also notably overshot their xG? Look to the top-right.
Tammy Abraham (Chelsea), Timo Werner (RB Leipzig), Wissam Ben Yedder (Monaco), Robert Lewandowski (Bayern Munich), Gerard Moreno (Villarreal) & Luis Suarez (Barcelona)
- MRKT Insights (@insightMrkt) November 19, 2019
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With notable mentions for Karim Benzema (Real Madrid), Sergio Aguero (Manchester City), Goncalo Paciencia (Eintracht Frankfurt), Alassane Plea (Borussia M'gladbach), Victor Osimhen (Lille), Alvaro Morata (Atletico Madrid) and Duvan Zapata (Atalanta)
- MRKT Insights (@insightMrkt) November 19, 2019
What about strikers who've not been scoring as much as their cut-above shot quality suggests?
Islam Slimani (Monaco), Breel Embolo (Borussia M'gladbach), Luuk de Jong (Sevilla), Roberto Firmino (Liverpool), Guido Burgstaller (Schalke) and Lebo Mothiba (Strasbourg)
- MRKT Insights (@insightMrkt) November 19, 2019
Then you think about strikers who've been taking up decent-to-good positions to shoot from but haven't been doing it enough, due to a lack of service or otherwise.
Marcus Thuram (Borussia M'gladbach), Chris Wood (Burnley), Loren Moron (Real Betis), Sebastien Haller (West Ham)
- MRKT Insights (@insightMrkt) November 19, 2019
In the region of strikers who've been taking up average-or-below positions and shooting infrequently, some interesting outliers are visible, like
Jamie Vardy (Leicester City, +6.40)
Moussa Dembele (Lyon, +4.83)
Nils Petersen (Freiburg, +3.35)
Christian Kouamé (Genoa, +2.77)
- MRKT Insights (@insightMrkt) November 19, 2019
There are always those who have good per-90 xG numbers by virtue of shooting in large volumes, albeit from less likely positions, such as
Cristiano Ronaldo, Paulo Dybala (Juventus)
Lautaro Martinez (Internazionale)
Mario Balotelli (Brescia)
Federico Chiesa (Fiorentina)
- MRKT Insights (@insightMrkt) November 19, 2019
However, these players save for Balotelli (who's par for course), have all been below their xG by just over -1. Is shooting a lot working for some? For now, it is, for
Memphis Depay (Lyon, +3.27)
Habib Diallo (Metz, +3.39)
Ciro Immobile (Lazio, +4.74)
- MRKT Insights (@insightMrkt) November 19, 2019
To conclude, which U-23 strikers in Europe are on course to end up with a healthy goal tally, if these numbers remain within reasonable variance?
Tammy Abraham
Timo Werner
Breel Embolo
Lebo Mothiba
Victor Osimhen
Efthimis Koulouris
- MRKT Insights (@insightMrkt) November 19, 2019
And which ones are interesting from a shot-volume point of view?
Marcus Thuram
Dominic Calvert-Lewin
Borja Mayoral
Wesley
Josh Sargent
Anthony Martial
- MRKT Insights (@insightMrkt) November 19, 2019
Thoughts on the above results?
Let us know in the comments.
Topics: Football News, Football, Tammy Abraham, Cristiano Ronaldo