Yep - that's despite Italy failing to qualify for the 2018 World Cup.
UBS ran a simulation over 10,000 times and the result makes for interesting reading.
The summer World Cup is just under a month away (get excited), and ahead of the footballing extravaganza, UBS deployed a team of analysts and editors to run a computer simulation.
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Here's the results...
Interesting.
So, Italy have a 15.3% chance to win their Group, not to mention a 1.6% to win the whole thing, even though they will not compete at the World Cup.
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Cool.
The simulated prediction does, however, give Germany a 24% chance to raise another World Cup.
While giving Brazil a 19.8% and Spain a 16.1% chance.
Next on the list is England with a 8.5% chance who are ahead of France, Belgium and Argentina, among others.
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Naturally, though, UBS giving Italy a chance to win the World Cup sent social media into overdrive:
Who wins the World Cup?
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Let us know who you think.
Featured Image Credit:Topics: Football News, Football, World Cup, Italy