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Data Reveals Every Premier League Team’s Chances Of Finishing In Top Four


Data Reveals Every Premier League Team’s Chances Of Finishing In Top Four

Expert data shows that 10 Premier League clubs still have a chance of finishing inside the top four by the end of the season - but it's bad news for Liverpool fans.

A detailed analysis of every team's chances of Champions League qualification by league finish has been undertaken by The Athletic. Stats Perform's predicted final league table is based on attacking and defensive strengths, remaining fixtures, recent form and previous results.

Unsurprisingly, Manchester City have a 100% chance of a top-four finish, while Manchester United are on a healthy 93.3% after their 2-0 win over City on Sunday. The Red Devils also have a 0.2% chance of finishing top... so don't rule it out entirely.


After that, Chelsea are the next most likely team to finish in the top four. They have a 65.4% chance, which is pretty special considering the team's struggles when Thomas Tuchel took over in late January.

Leicester are next with a 63.3% chance - and while they're riding high in third, just a point behind Man United, their injury problems make them the most likely side to get caught.

Liverpool, however, who won the league with a whopping 99 points last season are given just a 20.2% chance to turnaround their form and make a successful late bid for the top four.


It's actually Tottenham who have the best odds of gate-crashing the current top four, with a 33.6% chance. Arsenal, meanwhile, have only a 1.7% chance of climbing the table and into the Champions League spots.

Every team's percentage chance is below or read The Athletic's detailed breakdown here.

Credit: The Athletic/Stats Perform
Credit: The Athletic/Stats Perform

Manchester City: 100%


Manchester United: 93.3%

Chelsea: 65.4%

Leicester: 63.3%

Tottenham: 33.6%


Liverpool: 20.2%

West Ham: 15.1%

Everton: 6.8%

Arsenal: 1.7%


Aston Villa: 0.3%

Leeds: 0%

Wolves: 0%

Southampton: 0%

Crystal Palace: 0%

Burnley: 0%

Newcastle: 0%

Brighton: 0%

Fulham: 0%

West Brom: 0%

Sheffield United: 0%

Tough luck on West Ham - currently fifth - on their 15.1% chance. But we reckon most Hammers fans would have bitten your hand off for that at the start of the season.

Ditto Aston Villa, who might only have a 0.3% chance - but considering they were tipped by many to be fighting relegation, even those slender odds represent a big success.

All imagery: PA Images/The Athletic

Topics: Manchester City, Liverpool, Aston Villa, Leicester City, Chelsea, Tottenham Hotspur, Manchester United, Premier League, West Ham United, Arsenal

Alex Reid
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