Fan Does 50 Million Simulations For Champions League Group Stage Draw
A football fan has run 50 million simulations for the upcoming Champions League group stage draw on Thursday, with a probability rating given for every possible outcome.
BayernForum.com did the experiment based on the assumption that Ajax get past APOEL Nicosia in the final play-off this week - and it though it took a lot of time and effort - it makes for very interesting reading.
Champions League holders Liverpool are most likely to be paired with Diego Simeone's Atletico Madrid from pot two, much like Premier League champions Manchester City and Europa League winners Chelsea, also in pot one.
But Spurs, the only other English team not in pot one, are facing the prospect of a nightmare draw. Last year's finalists are most likely to draw La Liga champions Barcelona for the second year running - garnering 21.56 per cent of the 50m simulations which occurred.
We've simulated the 2019-20 #UCLdraw for the group stage, assuming Ajax make it through, for 50 million times, and here are the probabilities for the matches between the teams in pot 1 and the ones in pot 2. pic.twitter.com/nCUnAvCWAo
- BayernForum.com (@BayernForumCom) August 25, 2019
Took a good chunk of the weekend to do. It was particularly challenging due to the TV pairings, which aren't yet officially confirmed either, so are subject to change, esp. if Ajax are eliminated which means Lyon takes their place in pot 2 and are kept apart from PSG. Please RT!
- BayernForum.com (@BayernForumCom) August 26, 2019
Mauricio Pochettino's side only have five options from pot one because of the country protection rule in place and will be hoping to get Russian side Zenit St Petersburg - their second-most frequent outcome at 21.05 per cent.
Juventus, Bayern Munich, Paris Saint-Germain all came in at 19 per cent. No doubt Spurs fans would much prefer not having to play any of those European giants home and away in the group.
Meanwhile, BT Sport's 'The Script' feature has predicted Real Madrid to win a fourth Champions League trophy under Zinedine Zidane, seeing off Bayern Munich 3-2 in the Istanbul final.
Los Blancos beat Manchester City, Chelsea and then Barcelona on their route to the final, while Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo break more records.