As the conclusion of the Premier League season edges ever closer, all is still to play for in the infamously competitive ordeal to avoid relegation, while the race for top four has seemingly been decided as Chelsea have dropped points in their last two outings, they now sit a hefty 10 points behind Spurs.
Occupying 18th and 19th spot, Southampton and Stoke are in a perilous spot of bother, picking up points quickly is essential for giving themselves a realistic chance of beating the drop. Stoke have enjoyed a 10 year stay in the Premier League, cashing in on the financial rewards by recruiting outlandish coups such as Bojan and Shaqiri in recent seasons. Flashbacks to Tony Pulis' tenure leave a sentimental dose of fondness that brings memories of better times. A notoriously loud and hostile atmosphere greeted every away side to the old Brittania Stadium, a physical tussle was a nailed on certainty. Who can forget Rory Delap's monster of a throw regularly causing havoc in the opposition penalty box? Arguably some of these factors contributed to the ever present, but slightly outdated saying 'but can they do it on a cold rainy night in Stoke?'
Southampton continue to present a conundrum, their insistence on selling their best players may eventually lead to their ultimate undoing, we'll find out in the impending weeks. Southampton have generally replaced their prized assets fantastically with adequate imports, but gambling on this strategy every season is fraught with danger, the perks of continuity shouldn't be underestimated in football. It's a catch twenty-two situation for Southampton, is it unethical to deny granting your player a move to a bigger club when he actively demands it? But how do you make progress and become a bigger club to consistently challenge the upper echelons of the Premier League? You keep hold of your best players. Therein lies the deeply engrained problem, monetary accumulation but little progress on the pitch.
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Granted, I do believe I'm now waffling, so onto the betting itself...
Double @ 3.70 (Betfair) - Southampton v Chelsea BTTS, Crystal Palace WIN
Southampton v Chelsea BTTS @ 9/10
Chelsea look a side devoid of confidence at present, plagued by a deeply unsettled managerial situation which continues to pervade through the media agenda. Since the turn of the year Chelsea have struggled immensely, and Saturday's trip to relegation threatened Southampton is set to be another difficult assignment. Southampton will look to get on the front foot and wrestle the initiative early in the game, it's probably not a game Southampton can afford to draw and there should be a healthy amount of intent from the get go. The Saints will be buoyed on by an encouraging St Mary's atmosphere, which fully acknowledges the high stakes nature of the match. Chelsea are shipping in goals, fully exemplified by the failure to keep a clean sheet for 8 matches in a row. While Southampton have struggled to score goals at times this season, there was plenty of promise in their 3-2 defeat at the Emirates last week. Southampton architected many opportunities, understandably aided by their level of hunger and desire to force a positive result. Chelsea's attacking quality is there for all to see, and they have managed to score in every single match against Southampton dating back to 2002. Southampton's need to win the game is likely to leave them exposed at the back, particularly on the counter attack where the likes of Hazard and Willian can make a meaningful impact.
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Crystal Palace WIN @ 19/20 v Brighton
An undoubtedly huge game from not only a rivalry perspective, but in the race to avoid the drop. Selhurst Park will play host to a cracking and intimate atmosphere, certainly an entertaining spectacle for the neutral with all the ramifications considered. Admittedly, it does feel as though Palace have been getting unlucky in matches as a series of late goals have impeded their attempts to steer well clear of the relegation zone. With home advantage on their side, I'm expecting Palace to offer a performance worthy a of win here, they have the attacking quality and ingenuity to cause Brighton problems with the likes of Zaha, Townsend and Cabaye. By all accounts Chris Hughton has done a superb job at Brighton, but their away form leaves much to be desired. Their last 10 Premier League away games have yielded 3 draws and 7 losses, but worryingly they have only managed to score 2 goals. I like the value on a Palace win here.
Single: Huddersfield WIN @ 7/4 v Watford (Uni Bet)
Without a win in 5, Huddersfield are enduring a tough spell and remain just 4 points outside the relegation zone, this weekend's home clash against watford is a fantastic opportunity to extend the points gap further. Huddersfield performed competently against Brighton last week, forcing a 1-1 draw and managing to score their first goal in over a month. When it comes to matches of this relative importance, home advantage is key, the Huddersfield players need to draw upon the infectious energy of their home support. Watford started the season in outstanding form, but the Marco Silva managerial speculation was the beginning of their downfall, they've never really been the same side since. Less ability to manage games effectively, and less of a backbone. Watford's away form since December makes for painful reading, conjuring up just 1 draw, while being on the receiving end of a defeat 9 times. Watford have failed to score in their last 6 away matches, and that's one of the main reasons why I feel Huddersfield are great value this Saturday.
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Single: Spurs WIN and BTTS v Man City @ 10/3 (Betway)
Despite the lingering concerns at the beginning of the season in regards to Spurs' inability to play at Wembley, such concerns have been erased as Spurs have slowly but surely moulded Wembley into a fortress. The high pressing in your face approach was doubted on the large confines of the Wembley turf, but its effectiveness at present pays dividends to the exploits of Pochettino's masterful coaching. After a painful last couple of weeks for City, this is arguably the toughest fixture that could greet them, Spurs can compound the misery this weekend. Interestingly, City have begun to show defensive frailties and uncertainty, if Spurs can win the ball high up the pitch and retain lengthy spells of possession, intertwined with dynamic interchanging movement, then City are vulnerable. Factor in the absence of Fernandinho, and a key lynchpin is missing from Man City's defensive shape, he offers aggression and the ability to break up play, keeping things ticking from a possession stance. Man City's quality going forward will always produce a threat and hence provides the simple reasoning for my play on BTTS.
Two correct score singles (Sunday)
Newcastle 1-1 Arsenal @ 13/2 (BetVictor)
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Newcastle 2-1 Arsenal @ 12/1 (Bet365)
Newcastle are brimming with confidence on the back of 3 consecutive wins, including a noteworthy away victory against Leicester last week. Rafa is deservedly earning the plaudits, with what many pundits consider to be a very ordinary squad of players. On the back of prioritising Europa League commitments, Arsenal may field a weakened team and experience some level of fatigue after their lengthy trip to Russia. Take into account a raucous toon army home support, and the Arsenal players may freeze and let the emotions get the better of them, as we've seen on countless away trips this season. I expect Newcastle to be competitive from the off and architect a goal or two. The bookies have acknowledged this is a tough trip for Arsenal with their pricing, and for that reason I don't think there is much value on backing Newcastle outright.
For anyone who wants to take the option of a high odds long shot...
Southampton v Chelsea BTTS, Crystal Palace WIN, Huddersfield WIN, Spurs WIN and BTTS, Newcastle WIN and BTTS
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@ 237/1 (Bet365)
Words by David Huntingford
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