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ODDSbible Politics: Expect A May Day In June General Election

ODDSbible Politics: Expect A May Day In June General Election

We've taken an in-depth look at all the best value bets in the upcoming general election.

Anonymous

Anonymous

Theresa shows gambling instincts by calling general election, but will it be MAYDAY OR LABOUR DAY on June 8th?

Just a week before my dissertation on rising prime-ministerial power was due, Britain's Prime Minister Theresa May not only added to my word count but shook the political foundations at Westminster and throughout Great Britain to its core by announcing a snap general election which will take place on Thursday June 8 2017, just seven weeks from now.

After going to the polls in 2015, the Conservative Party, at that stage led by David Cameron, returned triumphant with a parliamentary majority, albeit small, to rid the nation of a coalition government and enabling the Bullingdon boy to solely take the reins in Downing Street.

However, following Britain's decision in 2016 to leave the European Union, Cameron exited stage right and Theresa May took over the lease at Number 10.

Theresa May
Theresa May

Despite reiterating her stance that she would abide by Parliament's fixed term constitutional convention and would not call a general election until 2020, May, in a shock reversal, decided during a country walk in Wales that she would shake up British politics and attempt to procure a commanding majority to initiate the Brexit proceedings by holding another general election in June.

A truly extraordinary move, I've left the dissertation alone for a while to give you what I think are the best ante-post betting angles for an election which while looming over the precipice, looks sure to be a fiery and ultimately defining decision on the future of Britain's political leadership in the post-Brexit body politic.

In 2016, Brexit, which could be backed at around 9/1 during the vote count, Donald Trump's presidential election success, available at a general 13/2 during that vote count, coupled with Leicester's 5000/1 Premier League title success intimated the shock results of the year.

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However, I think 2017, which could still provide a seismic political upheaval throughout Europe, has already shown certain hallmarks that normality is returning to the political arena.

This was evident in the Dutch general election where Geert Wilders' extreme-right anti-immigration party failed to become the largest party in the Dutch Parliament after losing out to the centre-right VVD party.

With French and German elections also taking place, there remains scope for further shocks but I don't think the same can be said for Britain.

Thanks must go to my fellow University of Bath course mates Alex Smith and Josh Gorringe for their opinions. Here is the breakdown of what look the best ante-post bets for Britain's 2017 general election:

With Labour in disarray, I think this looks a canny bit of brinkmanship from Theresa May and the bookmakers seem to agree. The Conservatives are general 1/12 shots to win the most seats (1/20 with Boylesports), around 1/5 to win an overall majority (no overall majority 5/1 and Labour overall majority 16/1) and May is 1/10 to still be Prime Minister on June 9th.

I think all three of those bets looked nailed on but at a bigger price, I fancy the Conservatives to win more than 345.5 seats at 5/6 with Paddy Power.

10 Downing
10 Downing

At the 2015 general election, the Tories caused a stir by somehow gaining a slim overall majority in an election the pollsters got horribly wrong. They won 330 seats on that occasion and I think it's not beyond the realms of possibility that they can add another 16 seats.

But where do those seats come from I hear you ask? Well, obviously key battlegrounds are going to be the South of England as the Tories upset the Liberal Democrats apple cart by winning seats such as Kingston and Twickenham in 2015.

They will have to retain those seats to gain a majority but I think May's 'Hard Brexit' notion might also see the party procure some of the UKIP vote.

Additionally, I've been impressed with Ruth Davidson's leadership of the Scottish Conservative Party and it's not beyond the realms of possibility that the Tories could gain more seats here. They obtained 16 extra seats at the Scottish parliamentary elections in 2016, an impressive return and I feel they could carry that momentum on here.

Ruth Davidson
Ruth Davidson

Key seats which look likely to be battlegrounds includes the Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirik constituency which the Conservatives lost by only 328 votes to the Scottish National Party.

I also think she could compete with Labour in seats throughout the Midlands and the North East. That includes Wolverhampton South West which Labour only hold by 801 votes and Newcastle-under-Lyme which the boys in Red only hold by 650 seats.

I think these are the sort of seats which the Tories could really make strides with.I'm also keen to have a little dabble with the Conservatives to win more over 372.5 seats at 5/6 with Sky Bet and also for them to win 374 seats (for a 100+ majority) at 11/10 with the same firm.

Labour look a party disunited behind their archetypal leader and I think May might just be able to mirror the Iron Lady of British politics, by fashioning a position of real strength.

London seats might play a role here including Ilford North (589 Labour vote majority) and Brentford and Islworth (465 Labour majority).

I've been thoroughly impressed with May's leadership thus far and judging by opinion polls, so have the public. She might just run away with it.

The Labour Party look an organisation in disarray. Disunited behind their leader Jeremy Corbyn, I think this could be an even worse election for the party than the 1983 longest suicide note in history debacle under Michael Foot.

Jeremy Corbyn
Jeremy Corbyn

Labour are 20% behind the Tories in certain polls and I think they might struggle to win 200 seats. With that in mind I'm keen to back Labour to win fewer than 200 seats at 2/5 with Sky Bet.

Seats including Ilford North, Brentford and Isleworth, Newcastle-Under-Lyme and Wolverhampton South look set to come under threat from a rampant Tory party and I think this could be a nightmare election for Mr. Corbyn.

However, I do think that the party will win over 169.5 seats which looks a decent price at 5/6 with SkyBet. Anything less would have to go down as an unmitigated disaster.

Let's be honest, what a fall from grace the 2015 election was for the Liberal Democrats. It was yellow peril for Clegg and co, with cabinet ministers including Ed Davey and Vince Cable losing their seats to a Tory insurgency.

Having procured 57 seats in the 2010 general election off the back of promises by Clegg including that he would abolish tuition fees if his party were elected into government, voters flocked to support the party.

However, once entering a coalition with Cameron's Conservatives, promises were not kept and the party suffered badly at the 2015 election, returning a paltry eight seats, a loss of 49 seats.

Olney
Olney

However, things have looked slightly brighter for the party in recent times as they gained their ninth seat last year after ex-Tory MP Zac Goldsmith lost his seat in the Richmond Park by-election to Lib Dem Sarah Olney.

On the face of things, that was a phenomenal effort as Olney overturned Goldsmith's 23,015 vote majority. Under new leader Tim Farron, it's fair to say that the party can seek to represent the 48% Bremainers given May and Jeremy Corbyn's unflinching support of the Brexit process.

Farron is keen for Britain to remain in the single market and he and his party could really appeal to a middle-class and potentially students who feel left behind after Brexit. As the old adage goes 'forgive and forget' and that is just what people might do with the party.

I think that makes the Liberal Democrats to win under 25.5 seats at 5/6 with Paddy Power pretty decent value. The party will launch powerful campaigns in the south of England and let's be honest, they can't really do much worse than 2015. I don't see the party gaining masses of seat but I definitely see them gaining a handful more.

My BANKER bet however is UKIP to fail to win a single seat available at a generous 3/5 with Paddy Power.

That looks a lovely price bearing in mind the party have lost their figurehead Nigel Farage and have succumbed to leadership issues following Diane James' disastrous 18 day tenure as leader before Paul Nuttall took over the reins.

He made some ill advised comments about the Hillsborough disaster and with the party's only MP Douglas Carswell now standing as an independent, I can't see the party landing a seat.

Nuttall
Nuttall

At the 2015 general election, the party recorded 3.8 million votes because they had a charismatic leader and their voters wanted Brexit yet they still did not win a seat.

This time around, the party have achieved their aim of Britain leaving the European Union and missing Farage is a pivotal factor. I see their vote share falling here.

I also think voter turnout here looks a great betting medium. Following the 2015 general election, the 2016 Brexit referendum and then the local elections just four days before the election this year, I think people could be apathetic here and decide not to vote under the notion of voter fatigue.

Turnout at the 2015 election was 66% and with that in mind, Sky Bet's offer of 5/6 that turnout will be over 62.5% looks a pretty decent bet to me. People will still vote as for the next seven weeks, the media frenzy surrounding the election will dominate Britain and I think you could have a similar number around the 65/66% mark.

A final bet which looks interesting is the betting on the next Labour leader. Jeremy Corbyn is a general 1/6 to cede the leadership in 2017 and the man who has been reported as a likely successor is Keir Starmer at 5/1 with several firms.

Keir Starmer
Keir Starmer

The rumours have been strong for him and I'll take that price for an up and coming politician who was previously Director of Public Prosecutions and Crown Prosecution Service.

At a bigger price, David Miliband at 16/1 with Ladbrokes looks a huge price, Many people were shocked that he didn't win the Labour leadership contest in 2010 when losing out to his brother Ed. Whilst David is now President and CEO of the International Rescue Committee, I think he might be tempted by making a return to British politics if Corbyn as the polls and bookmakers suggest does step down as leader.

Whatever the verdict at on the morning of June 9, Britain's political system will have been shook to its foundations with in my opinion, Theresa May and the Conservative Party set to be in dreamland. May has gambled on the biggest decision of her political life; I think she's done the right thing.

Words by: Danny Archer

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