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ODDSbible Cycling: Tour De France Stage Twenty-One Betting Preview

ODDSbible Cycling: Tour De France Stage Twenty-One Betting Preview

The Tour comes to an end on the Champs-Elysees today.

Anonymous

Anonymous

An impressive end to a more than impressive week saw our 80/1 pick, Maciej Bodnar, come home to land some big winnings. Froome managed to hold his margin to Uran to all but claim his fourth Tour de France title, barring any crashes on today's stage.

The riders finally reach Paris today after three weeks of trouble and turmoil, welcome relief for all riders in the race. The Champs Elysees stage is a classic in Tour de France history, finishing upon this famous city street for the past generation.

A day that starts with fun, frivolity and a few glasses of celebratory champagne will soon turn into a heated battle for the final stage win of this year's Tour de France. The race will ceases to wind up until the riders reach the circuit around the Champs Elysees, unwritten rules dictate so after all...

The circuit is well known to the majority of riders in this race but still a very tricky one to navigate given a few tight bends. The first lap should no doubt see the typical breakaway try and launch, usually a ceremonial parade for those riders bidding goodbye to their final Tour.

For the sprinters, the race will all come down to the final lap, once round the Arc de Triomphe before barrelling down the Champs Elysees towards the Jardin de Tuileries. This downward stretch is often ridden at pace by the peloton and stops any attacks from flying off the front.

As the riders reach the Jardin, a chicane in the road can throw some riders into sudden danger. Whether by crash or split, a lot of riders can see their races end here.

A tight left hander then takes the riders down and under the bridge before they emerge at Norwegian corner. It's then 1.5km to the finish line and time for the final few leadout men to take their turn. With around 750m-600m to go, the riders take one final bend before the see the finish line ahead of them.

The final kick is uphill and slightly cobbled, two elements that will sap the strength from even the strongest sprinter. This is Mark Cavendish's usual playground, but with the Manxman missing this stage for the past few years, the mantle has started to fall to Andre Greipel, a winner on the Champs for the past two years...

The veteran German sprinter has taken a stage win on every Tour since 2011 and isn't looking to give up his record now. He's left it late, but with all the top sprinters now out of the race, he's the strongest one left. He also has the most experienced leadout train in the peloton, one that has already taken him to two wins on this exact stage finish.

Greipel knows how to attack this finish better than most and it comes as no surprise that he finds himself as the overwhelming favourite for today's stage at 11/4 with Paddy Power.

Looking to usurp the German's crown will be green jersey winner, Michael Matthews. Two stage wins on this race highlight the Aussie's imperious form and he already has enough confidence to take the fight to the likes of Greipel on the grandest stage of all.

He was fourth here last year with Peter Sagan and Alexander Kristoff ahead of him. Sagan is out of the race and Kristoff still sore from his crash in the Alps; a podium for Matthews today is a definite possibility. He can be found at 12/1 with LadBrokes for the stage win and is worth an E/W punt.

After his stage win on Friday, Edvald Boasson Hagen has finally broken his run of bad luck in this race and delivered a stage win. He showed that he didn't even need to rely on his sprint, soloing away from the group within the final 2km. Such a display of strength highlights the amazing power the Norwegian currently has in his legs and it would be foolish to not consider him today.

The Dimension Data rider can be found at odds of 3/1 with Bet365, not so good for a rider that is yet to prove themselves on a stage like this.

Dylan Groenewegen and John Degenkolb both have incredible finishing kicks but have been hampered by poor positioning so far in this race. Neither have a well developed leadout train and, as a result, they may struggle to find themselves in poll position today.

With every sprinter leaning on Lotto Soudal to set things up, the majority are in a similar position and we should be in store for one hectic scramble for the line with riders all along the width of the road. Groenwegen can be found at 9/2 with Paddy Power and Degenkolb 12/1 with Bet365, both for the stage win.

A breakaway win on the Champs Elysees is nigh on impossible, but it wouldn't be out of the ordinary for a surprise victor to take the spoils today. With a lot of the sprinting competition axed from the race, the door has been flung open for some of the second tier sprinters, and their leadout men, to have their say.

One of these riders is Rudiger Selig, Sagan's leadout man that has ridden to three top ten results since his leader's departure. His final acceleration is punchy and he should be able to deal with the slight uphill finish. The German can be found at 80/1 with UniBet for the stage win.

Whoever takes victory on the Champs Elysees, one thing will inevitably be certain, Chris Froome will claim his fourth Tour de France title and take his place in history among the greatest riders of all time...

The Verdict

All the sprinters will lean on Dimension Data and Lotto Soudal to set things up for the finale, the majority of riders surfing from the wheels of Greipel and Boasson Hagen. The bend just before the riders see the finish line usually strings out the riders and makes it almost impossible for a rider far down to sprint for the win.

It's all about positioning through the final bend, Andre Greipel is the most likely to come through in poll position and is the best bet for a stage win. I'll be backing the German at 11/4 for the win.

Two riders that I'll cover for podium positions are Boasson Hagen at 3/1 E/W and Matthews at 12/1 E/W.

For a surprise victor on the Champs, I'll be backing Rudiger Selig at 80/1 and John Degenkolb at 12/1, both for the outright stage win.

Words By: Inside The Peloton

https://www.insidethepelotonblog.org/

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