As Bauke Mollema soloed to victory on Sunday, we continued a strong run of betting form, placing Gallopin 16/1 third for some healthy E/W profit. Froome hung onto yellow, but after a puncture almost saw his race in tatters, will the Brit go onto the defensive tomorrow?
The profile screams traditional Tour de France transfer day, a relatively unimaginative route that snakes its way from one mountain range to another, the outcome at the finish line almost always ending in a bunch sprint.
We could have something a little different tomorrow however, a difficult climb right from the stage start could throw the sprinters onto the defensive from early on, especially green jersey wearer Marcel Kittel. One rider looking to usurp the German's green jersey is Aussie, Michael Matthews. He'll no doubt have his Sunweb team to the fore, drilling a hard pace to try and drop Kittel early on.
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Undulating parcour until the midpoint of the day will make any chase back to the peloton difficult, the roads are constantly up and down and it will be hard for anyone dropped to mount an efficient chase.
This is bad news for the sprinters, but great news for any potential breakaway; they should see their lead rocket through this section of the course, possibly even snapping the elastic to the peloton behind.
All will be decided in the final 40km flat run in to the line however; forecasts predict strong gusts of up to 18mph, throwing the race into crosswind territory. With the wind coming in perpendicular to the road, riders will have to funnel into echelons to try and shield themselves from the wind.
These types of winds create extremely aggressive racing, reminiscent of the Spring Classics throughout Belgium and Northern France. One team that excels in such conditions is Marcel Kittel's Quickstep outfit. The squad is based in Belgium and most riders grew up battling the fierce winds rolling in off the North Sea; this should stand them in good stead tomorrow, especially if gaps begin to form.
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A technical run in will cap off a hectic final half to the day and could potentially see some big pile ups. Three roundabouts in the final kilometre and a slight drag to the line make tomorrow's sprint one of the most complicated so far. With no straight roads to speak of, it's going to be nigh on impossible for the sprinters to form their leadout trains. Look's like it may come down to mano a mano in Romans sur Isere...
The big favourite for tomorrow's bunch kick is undoubtedly five time stage winner, Marcel Kittel. The German is clearly the fastest rider in this race and despite his tactical mishaps, he still has five stage wins to boast. He'll have his work cut out for him tomorrow however, especially if Sunweb force a hard pace on the climbs.
He may also suffer in the technical finale; being a sprinter that relies on a well developed leadout train, he may just find himself boxed in when it comes to the final kick. Nevertheless, he still finds himself as the top favourite for the stage, 2/1 with Bet365 certainly worth an E/W bet.
The German will face strong competition in the form of two Norwegians tomorrow. Edvald Boasson Hagen has already been beaten into second place once by Kittel and will be looking to one up him tomorrow. The Dimension Data rider relishes an uphill finish and his team will benefit from Quickstep and Sunweb doing all the work earlier in the day.
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Boasson Hagen can be found at 11/1 with PaddyPower for the stage win. The other Norwegian looking to threaten Kittel tomorrow isAlexander Kristoff. Despite being off the boil for most of the Tour so far, this is a stage that suits his abilities down to a tee. The Katusha rider is a strong endurance sprinter that can launch with 300m-400m still left to race. With a long uphill drag to the line, this endurance certainly gives Kristoff the advantage over Kittel.
The big Norwegian can be found as far as 16/1 with Betfred and is a great bet for tomorrow's podium.
Two other sprinters eyeing up high places tomorrow will be Michael Matthews and Dylan Groenewegen. Matthews now has the confidence of a stage win behind him and green jersey points to win; his motivation will be through the roof and he'll surely be taking every risk tomorrow to try and win. He can be found at 12/1 with Paddy Power for the stage win.
After an impressive third place earlier in the week for the young Dylan Groenewegen, he'll be hoping to go one better tomorrow. He hasn't had a leadout train all week and is more than accustomed to fending for himself in the final few kilometres; with experience, comes results... The Dutchman can be found at 18/1 with Paddy Power for the win and is certainly worth an E/W punt.
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Depending on how the sprinters teams choose to approach the opening climbs will ultimately decide whether the breakaway will succeed, or crumble. The undulating parcours suit them but if the wind starts to change direction and blows head on, they'll be left out to dry...
With a long week in the Alps coming, many riders may just want to have an easy day tomorrow, giving the break the freedom to take the stage win. Big contenders for tomorrow's break include, Tony Gallopin (66/1 Bet365), Stefan Kung (40/1 Ladbrokes), Dylan Van Baarle (66/1 Bet365) and Daryl Impey (125/1 Paddy Power).
The Verdict
Quickstep and Sunweb will engage in all out war throughout the first half of the stage, burning all their matches before they even reach the business end of the race. This will leave the door open for some other sprinting teams at the stage finish, namely Dimension Data.
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The South African based squad will be celebrating Mandela day tomorrow and would love nothing more than to put their man Edvald Boasson Hagen onto the podium. For that reason, I'll be on the Norwegian at 11/1 E/W.
Other men to cover in the sprint will be Michael Matthews and Dylan Groenewegen, 12/1 and 18/1 respectively with Paddy Power, definitely worth splitting with an E/W.
Not much value on Marcel Kittel and with the German looking to save most of his energy for Paris, it looks like it might be time for another sprinter to take stage honours at this year's Tour.
For the breakaway, Stefan Kung is a favourite for the solo win, 40/1 a good price to do so. For the thrill, I'll also be on Daryl Impey, 125/1 E/W, to bring it home for South Africa on Mandela Day...
Words By: Inside The Peloton
https://www.insidethepelotonblog.org/